Ryan Blaney hasn’t won this year, and odds are long that he will win the Geico 500. That doesn’t mean he won’t be close to the top like he has been in five of the last six races.

Ryan Blaney Geico 500
Ryan Blaney won at Talladega in 2019, and should be the top Ford on Sunday at the Geico 500. (Image: Getty)

That is why with this week’s One Bet, $100 I am picking Blaney to be the top Ford driver at the Geico 500. Blaney is getting +550 odds at BetMGM, the third choice behind Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano, both of whom are at +400.

Last week I was confident Kyle Busch would grab his first NASCAR Cup Series victory of 2020 at the Dixie Vodka 400. The defending Cup Series champion failed me, however, finishing sixth.

One Bet, $100

This Week’s Pick

Last Result

Season Total

Ryan Blaney top Ford

Lost Kyle Busch to win

3-4, up $180

This bet is going to have to rely on not only what I think Blaney will do, but what Keselowski and Logano won’t do. It makes it a tricky proposition, but I like the wager for a couple of reasons.

Blaney Record Mixed at Geico 500

Blaney hasn’t had strong results at the Geico 500, but he does have a victory at Talladega in last year’s fall stop at the famed super speedway. In the five previous races, however, he has three top 20 finishes, his highest result 15th last April.

I do like that he has improved his result at every Geico 500 since 2017. He did have better form in 2016 and 2017 with a couple of top 10s, though, so it is hard to predict what he’ll do on Sunday.

There is no disputing, however, he has been one of the hottest drivers the last six races. Blaney has finishes of third, second, fourth, 40th, third and third in those races.

Another factor I like is that he finished second at this year’s Daytona 500, another super speedway. Blaney said after last Sunday’s third-place finish in the Dixie Vodka 400 that he felt he was close to getting his first victory of the season.

“You’re proud of the runs that you’ve created and the speed our team’s got,” Blaney said. “I’m proud of that. The way I look at it is, just keep running up towards the front like that, I think those things come.”

What about Keselowski, Logano?

I am not going to lie and say that Keselowski and Logano don’t concern me. Especially Keselowski. He has won at Talladega five times. But one item jumped out at me while I was doing my research. Keselowski has not had a top-10 finish at Talladega in his last four races there.

Also his comments this week to reporters sent up red flags. He was talking about how he was getting wrecked there. It was almost like he was talking himself out of a victory.

“Talladega is one of those love-hate racetracks,” Keselowski said. “I love it when we win and hate it when we wreck.  I think you look at that and it’s been really frustrating for me as of late because it seems like we’ve been in great position and keep getting wrecked.”

Logano won this race two years ago, but since the NASCAR schedule has resumed, he is winless. In fact, four of his last eight races, he has failed to crack the top 10.

If both those trends continue, than Blaney should be able to be the top Ford at the Geico 500.