NASCAR drivers will be at its second super speedway of 2020 on Sunday at Talladega for the Geico 500. The race provides a tricky scenario for gamblers because of the wide-open nature of the 2.66-mile high-banked oval rack track, located east of Birmingham, Alabama.

Brad Keselowski Geico 500
Brad Keselowski has won at Talladega five times, and is one of the favorites to capture Sunday’s Geico 500. (Image: Getty)

Throw in tapered spacers for speed control, and the possibility of multi-car wrecks, and handicapping this race can be a headache. The one positive trend is Ford’s dominance at the Geico 500. They have won the eight of the last nine, and 11 of the last 15 at Talladega.

Odds to Win Geico 500

Driver William Hill BetMGM Bovada
Chase Elliott 9/1 15/2 8/1
Brad Keselowski 10/1 8/1 10/1
Ryan Blaney 10/1 11/1 10/1
Denny Hamlin 11/1 10/1 10/1
Joey Logano 11/1 9/1 9/1
Kyle Busch 12/1 12/1 14/1
Kevin Harvick 12/1 13/1 14/1
Martin Truex Jr. 18/1 18/1 14/1
Alex Bowman 18/1 20/1 20/1
Kurt Busch 20/1 14/1 18/1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 22/1 20/1 20/1
Clint Bowyer 22/1 20/1 20/1
Jimmie Johnson 25/1 20/1 22/1
Aric Almirola 25/1 20/1 20/1
Tyler Reddick 25/1 25/1 22/1
William Byron 25/1 25/1 28/1
Matt DiBenedetto 30/1 30/1 35/1
Bubba Wallace 30/1 40/1 50/1
Erik Jones 30/1 30/1 33/1
Austin Dillon 35/1 40/1 35/1
Ryan Newman 40/1 40/1 35/1
Matt Kenseth 40/1 40/1 55/1
Christopher Bell 50/1 40/1 50/1

 

Brad Keselowski is the leader among active drivers with five victories. He told reporters, however, that there is a certain amount of luck involved at this track.

“You can make all the right moves, be in the right place and end up in the trash heap,” Keselowski said. “It seems like that’s been worse as of late.  I don’t know why that is.  Well, I do know why that is, but I don’t agree with why that is, but we’ll just try to survive if you can survive.  Certainly, I feel like we have as good a chance as anyone else to win, if not better.”

Still Keselowski is fetching good odds, and makes for a great value bet at the Geico 500. Who else should be on gamblers’ radars? We take a look at some drivers to back, and others to avoid.

Drivers to Back At Geico 500

Ryan Blaney (10/1)

Blaney always seems to be near the lead in super speedway races, and should be once again at the Geico 500. Oddsmakers at William Hill have reported that he has the second highest dollars wagered on him, so grab him before the odds go any lower.

Aric Almirola (25/1)

Almirola could be the best longshot selection in a while. The odds seem really high, considering the success he has had at Talladega. He has finished in the top 10 in the last three spring races, and won the fall contest in 2018. At 25/1, it is certainly worth taking a chance on him.

Drivers to Avoid

Joey Logano (10/1)

Logano has been in a bit of a slump since NASCAR came back from its postponement. He has just one finish in the top 5 in eight starts. Logano did win the Geico 500 in 2018, as well as finished fourth in 2019, but we are looking at poor finishes in the three races before that. He also tends to have an aggressive style, and that could burn him at this venue.

Martin Truex Jr. (18/1)

This race has not been traditionally Toyota’s best, and Truex Jr. certainly has a poor record at Talladega. In the last four spring races, his best finish is 13th.

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