Heading into NFL Week 16, or the penultimate week of the regular season, some of the same familiar faces are home dogs once again, including the Cleveland Browns, New York Jets, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Week 16’s other home dogs include the Tennessee Titans, Philadelphia Eagles, and Chicago Bears. The Browns are the biggest home dog on the board, getting +10 against the Baltimore Ravens.
The Titans and Eagles are both stuck on the NFL playoff bubble heading into Week 16 and face must-win situations. Both teams need to win the rest of their games and hope their current division foes also falter. In the Eagles’ case, they could leapfrog the Dallas Cowboys and seize first place in the NFC East, thereby securing a divisional spot in the postseason. The Eagles need to win out their final two games, while the Cowboys must lose their final two of the season.
Home Dogs – NFL Week 16
Cleveland Browns +10
New York Jets +3
Tampa Bay Bucs +3
Tennessee Titans +3
Philadelphia Eagles +2.5
Chicago Bears +5.5
The Browns are double-digit home dogs heading into Week 16. Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens will spot Baker Mayfield and the Browns +10. The Ravens are the best team in the NFL, while the Browns limped back into Cleveland after losing to the lowly Arizona Cardinals.
Tampa Bay Bucs +3
The Bucs and Texans feature a fun quarterback matchup on Saturday, with Jameis Winston and DeShaun Watson slugging it out. Winston, fresh off of two of the best games of his career, set an NFL record with 450-plus yards in consecutive games. He also threw four touchdown strikes in each of his last two games. Winston tossed 30 touchdowns, but he’s also coughed up the ball a significant amount with 24 interceptions.
The Bucs (7-7) are 2-4 at home this season. The Texans (9-5) are 4-3 straight up on the road, but 5-2 ATS on the road this season. A Texans victory would put them one step closer to locking up the AFC South.
Instead of backing the home dog or fading the home dog, consider the total (o/u 50) in this one. The over hit in 11 out of the last 12 games for the Bucs. Bruce Arians’ Bucs score a lot of points, but their porous defense yields a significant amount of points.
Cleveland Browns +10
The last time the Ravens lost a game, the Browns spanked them 40-25 in Baltimore. Since then, the Ravens (12-2) have won 10 in a row, and the Browns (6-8) went 4-6. The Browns were a popular preseason pick to win the AFC North outright, and even go to the Super Bowl, while most pundits thought the Ravens were overrated. Looks like everyone missed the boat on both teams.
The Browns were the overrated team and the Ravens became the team to challenge the New England Patriots as the dominant force in the AFC.
The Browns host the Ravens in a smash-mouth AFC North clash, but these are two vastly different teams than the ones that met back in Week 4. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens morphed into a bona fide Super Bowl contender, while the Browns look like they took several steps back with a disgruntled Odell Beckham stirring up s–t in the locker room.
The Ravens, 6-1 on the road this season, want to put this game away early and hope none of their starters get hurt in another Ravens/Browns divisional brawl. The Ravens are 4-1-2 ATS on the road, but 7-5-2 ATS overall this season.
New York Jets +3
The LOLJets (5-9) and Le’Veon Bell face his old squad when the Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6) roll into the New Jersey Meadowlands. The Steelers are 7-5-2 ATS this season, while the Jets are 5-9 ATS.
The total hovers around 38.5, which is one of the lowest point spreads of the season. Both offenses struggle to generate points, and both defenses have shown flashes of brilliance at different times. The bookies expect a low-scoring affair with oodles of field goals. You can also toss out home field advantage in this one. There will be significantly more Steelers fans in the crowd at MetLife Stadium than faithful Gang Green fans, who probably dumped their tickets on StubHub before Halloween.
Tennessee Titans +3
The Titans (8-6) shot themselves in the foot last week by losing to the Texans in Tennessee. Now they need to win out the rest of the season, and hope either the Texans and/or Steelers screw up. The Titans will be rooting for both the Bucs and the Jets this weekend.
In the meantime, the Titans drew a difficult opponent as Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints (11-3) are coming in hot. Brees broke Peyton Manning’s all-time touchdown record with four TDs on Monday Night Football.
The Titans’ future is in the hands of Ryan Tannenhill and Derrick Henry. If they can generate enough offense to keep up with the Saints, then they’ll have a shot at a postseason berth. In the eyes of the Titans, Week 16 is a playoff game.
Philadelphia Eagles +3
The Eagles (7-7) control their own destiny. They can advance to the postseason if they can wrestle the NFC East title away from the Dallas Cowboys (7-7). The NFC East is the worst division in the NFL, but to be honest, neither of these teams deserve a postseason berth. The NFL should step in and award the NFC East title to the second-place winner of the NFC West (between the Seahawks and Niners).
The Cowboys are a hot mess, but not like a wine-drenched cougar on your favorite reality TV show. They are more like a steaming pile of cow dung that bakes in the stifling Texas sun. As bad as they’ve played all season, the Cowboys have a shot to punch their own ticket to the postseason and save Jason Garrett’s job with a clutch victory over the Eagles this weekend. It’s not going to be pretty, but then again, we’re talking about the inept NFC East here.
Chicago Bears +4.5
Da Bears (7-7) are one of the worst teams in the NFL this season, with a puke-inducing 3-10-1 ATS record. The Monsters of the Midway look more like the Monsters of the Meh-way with the Kansas City Chiefs (10-4) coming to the Windy City.
When the NFL suits devised this season’s schedule, they believed a Week 16 matchup between the Bears/Chiefs on Sunday Night Football had the potential to be one of the marquee games of the season. The Bears failed to live up to the preseason hype, instead mounting a sputtering offense led by a beleaguered QB Mitch Trubisky. The Chiefs have their own fair share of problems with injuries, including ankle and knee injuries to Patrick Mahomes. They’ve been slowly getting healthier as the season progresses.
The Chiefs play better away from Kansas City (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) for some unknown reason. They’re also 9-5 overall ATS.
