Brad Keselowski has never won the NASCAR All-Star Race, but it’s never been held at Bristol Motor Speedway before. Keselowski has been to Victory Lane at the Tennessee track three times before.

Brad Keselowski NASCAR All-Star Race
Brad Keselowski is an 8/1 pick to win the NASCAR All-Star Race at Bristol Motor Speedway, a track he won at earlier this year. (Image: Getty)

For that reason, and a couple of others, I’m taking Keselowski at 8/1 to win the NASCAR All-Star Race with this week’s One Bet, $100.

I swung for the fences with Sunday’s One Bet, $100 pick, and struck out. I took Aric Almirola to win the Quaker State 400 at 35/1. The 36-year-old did lead the race early on, which made my heart race a bit, but ultimately, he faded and finished eighth. That broke his five-race streak of finishing in the top 5, a mark that stretched back to June 4th at Homestead-Miami.

Ironically, Keselowski was my second choice on Sunday. The 36-year-old finished right behind Almirola in ninth.

He should do much better on Wednesday night at Bristol.

Advantage Keselowski

Keselowski already has one victory at Bristol Motor Speedway this season, capturing the Supermarket Heroes 500 on May 31. He was the beneficiary of some good luck when frontrunners Chase Elliott and Joey Logano tangled, crashing into the wall. Keselowski avoided the wreck and was able to hold off Clint Bowyer to win the race.

“Just a wild, wild day,” Keselowski said. “One of those days that you look at and you think of going back, being a part of Bristol lore for a long time to come. Glad we were able to win it.”

You can argue that Keselowski didn’t win that race and just happened to be in the right place when Elliott and Logano crashed. I don’t buy that logic. He was close to those two, and who knows what could have happened in those final three laps. Plus, he still had to hold off Bowyer.

What isn’t up for debate is Keselowski’s success at this racetrack. In addition to his three victories at Bristol, Keselowski has four other top 10s there. He’s led 812 laps in his 21 appearances there.

The other factor that weighs in his favor is his success with the 750 horsepower package. In the three races that have utilized this package this season, Keselowski has finished 11th, 1st, and 3rd.

Avoiding the Aggression

Keselowski seems adept at steering clear of the craziness that happens at Bristol. In 21 races at the track, Keselowski has finished them all. His average finish is 16.5.

Bumping and crashing is something to be expected on Bristol’s half-mile oval, according to Keselowski. He says contact is part of this race.

“I think sometimes you get to the Cup level, whether it’s the setup, drivers’ experience, you don’t see a lot of mistakes,” Keselowski said. “People misinterpret that as the cars are really easy to drive. It’s really just the opposite of that. These guys are pros, really good.”

Look for Keselowski to show his expertise at this racetrack and to earn his first victory in the NASCAR All-Star race.