Aric Almirola has been sniffing a victory for the last five races, and at Sunday’s Quaker State 400 I believe he will smell success. That is why with this week’s One Bet, $100, I am picking him to win the NASCAR Cup Series race at Kentucky Speedway. Almirola opened at the Westgate at 40/1.

Aric Almirola Quaker State 400
Aric Almirola has finished fifth or better in his last five races, and is in position to win the Quaker State 400. (Image: Josh Jones/TPF)

Last week I took the favorite with Kevin Harvick at the Brickyard 400. Harvick was 4/1 to win his third title at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, and held off Matt Kenseth late for the victory. It was the first time all year I had bet a favorite.

One Bet, $100

This Week Last Week Season Total
Aric Almirola win Quaker State 400 Won, Kevin Harvick Brickyard 400 5-4, Up $940


That is definitely not the strategy this week, but I believe Almirola is a solid longshot. More importantly, he believes he can win his second career Cup Series race.

“We’re in a position now to where we can gamble a little bit, and we can be a little more aggressive,” Almirola said. “We can be less conservative and not worry about points. Not that we’re going to throw caution to the wind, but we can certainly be more aggressive. A win is coming.”

Almirola Ready for Victory at Quaker State 400

The 36-year-old has finished fifth or better in the last five races, and has been one of the sport’s most consistent drivers. That may pay off for Almirola at the Quaker State 400.

It may pay off big for me as well. Almirola was getting 40/1 when the odds were posted, but he quickly got bet down. DraftKings and FoxBet both saw him slide all the way to 28/1. I don’t know if I would have taken him at those odds.

I was fortunate enough to get him at 35/1 at the Westgate. Why I think he will win is a combination of his recent finishes, and why I don’t think others higher up the betting board will be victorious.

The first two are the favorites Harvick and Denny Hamlin. Those two have the most victories in NASCAR this season, and have been battling each other weekly it seems. The duo, however, have never won at Kentucky, and I believe that streak will continue.

The other favorite is the one that worries me. Kyle Busch has won the Quaker State 400 twice in his career, and finished second last year to his brother, Kurt. But Kyle Busch is winless this season, and I am hoping that continues on Sunday.

Why Almirola will Win

I am basing an Almirola Quaker State 400 victory solely on his past five races, and that could come back to bite me. He hasn’t been particularly impressive at Kentucky. In seven trips there his best finish was eighth in 2018. That is his only top 10 at Kentucky Speedway.

This bet is more of a dream. If it cashes, I’ll make more than $3,000. I might be seeing dollar signs dancing in my eyes, but it is too good of a chance to pass up.