The NFL playoffs begin today with the super wild-card weekend, and DraftKings posted a cool prop bet about which quarterback will have the most passing yards in the entire postseason. And, it’s no surprise to see Patrick Mahomes (+225 odds) and Tom Brady (+275) listed among the favorites.
In this simple and straightforward prop bet, you’re really trying to pick a quarterback in the Super Bowl.
|NFL Playoffs Prop Bet: Most Passing Yards|
- Patrick Mahomes +225
- Tom Brady +275
- Matthew Stafford +800
- Joe Burrow +800
- Dak Prescott +800
- Josh Allen +800
- Aaron Rodgers +1000
- Kyler Murray +2500
- Ryan Tannehill +2800
- Jimmy Garoppolo +2800
- Derek Carr +4000
- Mac Jones +5000
- Ben Roethlisberger +6500
- Jalen Hurts +6500
- Marcus Mariota +20000
It’s even better if they don’t have a first-round bye (e.g., Aaron Rodgers) because that’s one less game they’ll have versus the six teams slugging it out in the wild-card round. Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers secured a first-round bye as the #1 seed in the NFC.
Alphas: Mahomes, Brady, Rodgers
Mahomes and Brady are in action during the first weekend of the NFL playoffs with their respective teams securing the #2 seed. Both of them play for two of the top Super Bowl favorites, so it makes sense why the bookies listed Mahomes/Brady at the top of the prop betting board to secure the most passing yards in the playoffs.
Network suits would love another rematch between Brady and Mahomes, especially since Brady bested Mahomes in Super Bowl 55. I’d back off Brady because he doesn’t have his top wide-out in the postseason after Chris Godwin suffered a season-ending knee injury and Antonio Brown lost his mind during a potential career-ending sideline meltdown. Plus, Brady’s second-favorite target — Mike Evans — is banged up and limps into the wild card. Expect Brady to pull a few old plays from the Patriots playbook with a lot of dink and dump passes to his running backs.
Rodgers seems like the value pick here even though he has a first-round bye. If anyone can catch Mahomes in one fewer postseason game, it’s A-Rod. You can back Rodgers at +1000 odds to rack up the most passing yards in the playoffs.
Betas: Burrow, Allen, Prescott
Matthew Stafford, Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott, and Josh Allen are all in the same boat. They should win their wild-card matchups, but will face a tough second-round opponent in the divisional round.
Stafford, Burrow, Prescott, and Allen sounds like a fancy law firm in Beverly Hills, but those quarterbacks are each at +800 odds to tally the most passing yards in the playoffs.
Out of those four, Allen has the best shot at the Super Bowl with the Buffalo Bills. He’ll have to out-duel Mahomes in the second round and then, presumably, knock off Tannehill and the Titans in the AFC Championship.
Long shots: Tannehill, Jimmy G, Murray
Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals are destined for a one-and-done game in this year’s postseason. If, by chance, they do slip by the LA Rams on Monday Night Football, then they’ll end up heading to the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field to take on the well-rested Packers.
Ryan Tannehill is worthy of a flier at +2800 odds if you think the Tennessee Titans have the easiest path to the Super Bowl. They have a favorable draw with the Chiefs/Bills slugging it out in the second round and will only need to defeat one of them in order to lock up a spot in the Super Bowl. If the Titans expect to win the AFC Championship, Tannehill will have to outgun Mahomes or Allen.
A banged-up Jimmy Garoppolo led the San Francisco 49ers to a playoff berth. He said he’s in a ton of pain, but the painkillers helped him immensely. The 49ers marched all the way to the Super Bowl a couple of years ago, so we know that they’re capable of making a run.
Mac Jones has the benefit of riding Bill Belichick’s coattails into a Super Bowl berth, but the Evil Empire will keep their rookie quarterback on a short leash. Jones has the ability to fling it around, but he won’t. The Patriots will pass just enough to win a game, but don’t waste your money on a Jones prop bet.