The NFL playoffs begin with the super wild-card weekend and six games spread out over Saturday, Sunday, and the first-ever postseason installment of Monday Night Football. We found a couple of cool prop bets over at DraftKings where you can wager on the lowest or highest-scoring team over the weekend, in addition to a Grand Salami wager on total points scored.
Saturday features two AFC wild-card games with the #4 Cincinnati Bengals hosting the #7 Las Vegas Raiders, and the #6 New England Patriots visiting the #4 Buffalo Bills.
On Sunday, there are three wild-card games that start with a pair of NFC matches. The defending champion #2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the #7 Philadelphia Eagles in the early game while the #3 Dallas Cowboys and the #7 San Francisco 49ers meet in the afternoon game. Sunday Night Football features the third AFC wild-card game between the #7 Pittsburgh Steelers against the #2 Kansas City Chiefs.
Monday Night Football features the third and final NFC wild-card game between NFC West rivals when the #4 Los Angeles Rams host the #5 Arizona Cardinals in primetime.
Wild-card prop bet: highest scoring
The Dallas Cowboys led the NFL in scoring this season with 530 total points, or an average of 31.2 ppg. The Bucs (30.1 ppg) were second, followed by the Buffalo Bills (28.4 ppg), and Kansas City Chiefs (28.2 ppg).
The Cowboys are in the middle of the pack at +700 odds as the highest-scoring team in the super wild-card weekend because they face a tough defense against the San Francisco 49ers, who allowed only 21.5 ppg this season and who were ranked #7 in defensive DVOA.
The Bucs were ranked #1 in offensive DVOA and ranked second overall in scoring. They’re +400 odds to outgun everyone else in the wild card, but Tom Brady lost his top wide receiver with Chris Godwin out with a torn ACL, and Mike Evans is banged up.
|Wild-Card Prop Bet: Highest Scoring Team|
- Kansas City Chiefs +350
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers +400
- LA Rams +550
- Cincinnati Bengals +550
- Dallas Cowboys +700
- San Francisco 49ers +900
- Buffalo Bills +1200
- Arizona Cardinals +1400
- Las Vegas Raiders +2000
- Philadelphia Eagles +2200
- New England Patriots +2200
- Pittsburgh Steelers +5000
The Chiefs are a popular pick at +350 odds to score the most points. They have the third-best offensive DOVA ranking and scored the fourth-most points this season. Plus, there’s the Patrick Mahomes factor, and the public will ride or die with his cannon of an arm.
Wild-card prop bet: lowest scoring
The New England Patriots finished the season sixth in total points, averaging 27.2 ppg. They’re on the low-end of the prop betting board at +2200 odds as the highest-scoring team during the wild card, yet they’re the second-favorite on the lowest scoring prop bet at +450 odds.
The Patriots and Bills are meeting for the third time this season. Belichick likes to control the time of possession in the playoffs, so he’ll slow down the action by running a lot.
|Wild-Card Prop Bet: Lowest Scoring Team|
- Pittsburgh Steelers +300
- New England Patriots +450
- Philadelphia Eagles +500
- Las Vegas Raiders +650
- Arizona Cardinals +800
- Buffalo Bills +1000
- San Francisco 49ers +1200
- Dallas Cowboys +1600
- Cincinnati Bengals +2000
- LA Rams +2500
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3500
- Kansas City Chiefs +4000
The Pittsburgh Steelers are a popular wager as the lowest-scoring team this weekend. Ben Roethlisberger will play one more game before he hangs up the pads for good, but he’s a shadow of his former self. The Steelers averaged only 20.2 ppg this season. They’ll need to score 30+ to beat the Chiefs, but Big Ben and the Steelers will be hard-pressed to score more than a touchdown or two.
NFL grand salami
The grand salami bet originated with hockey bettors whose mission was to determine how many total goals would be scored on any given day. Bookies adopted that bet for all types of sports, especially pro football.
DraftKings set their grand salami points total prop bet at 288.5 over/under for the six games on super wild-card weekend.
|Combined Total Points – Super Wild-Card Weekend|
- Over 288.5 (-110)
- Under 288.5 (-110)
The actual totals for wild-card games are: Raiders/Bengals 48 o/u, Patriots/Bills 44 o/u, Eagles/Bucs 46 o/u, 49ers/Cowboys 50.5 o/u, Steelers/Chiefs 46 o/u, Cardinals/Rams 49.5 o/u. If you add up all those current totals, it’s only 284 points, which moved off the original tally of 288.5. Most of the public has been betting the under, especially in the Pats/Bills game.