It is a testament to Tiz the Law’s dominance over the rest of his 3-year-old contemporaries that his odds to win the Triple Crown (+250 at Circa Sports) are lower than any of his counterparts’ future odds on them winning the Kentucky Derby.
That’s one takeaway from Tiz the Law’s 5 ½-length dismantling of the Travers Stakes field Saturday afternoon at Saratoga. As of Monday, Tiz the Law sits at odds-on on Oddschecker (-120) to win the Kentucky Derby. He dropped to +120 on Circa Sports’ Kentucky Derby Futures Board, the same odds he held at William Hill.
The final Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool, which closed Sunday, had Tiz the Law at +110. He is now -295 on Circa’s “No” board, meaning you’d lay a little less than 3/1 to fade the Constitution colt in the Sept. 5 Derby.
When Circa opened its Derby Futures Board in late May, Tiz the Law was +595. He was 20/1 on most future pools last fall.
Tiz the Law built a legitimate case for going off at the shortest Derby-day odds since Point Given finished fifth as the 9/5 favorite in 2001. That was the last time a Derby favorite left the gate shorter than 2/1.
Amazingly, This Was Better Than the Belmont
None of this surprises anyone who saw Tiz the Law’s destruction of his Travers competitors. His career-best 109 Beyer Speed Figure would have been even better had jockey Manny Franco not geared Tiz the Law down in the deep stretch. That prudent, save-him-for-another-day move cost Tiz the Law a crack at Arrogate’s four-year-old Travers record. Instead, Tiz the Law covered the 1 ¼ miles in 2:00.95, becoming the first New York-bred to win the Travers since Thunder Rumble in 1992.
As for those competitors, the biggest victim – in terms of both connection morale and odds – was Uncle Chuck. The Bob Baffert shipper went off at 5/2, set the pace for six furlongs, then watched helplessly as Tiz the Law swept by him on the far turn. With jockey Luis Saez asking for gears that weren’t there, Uncle Chuck cried “Uncle,” finishing a miserable sixth — 26 1/2 lengths behind Tiz the Law.
That blew his odds up from +775 at Circa last Thursday to 30/1. He is 25/1 at William Hill and 16/1 at Oddschecker. And as of now, Uncle Chuck sits 25th with 20 points and outside the Derby points threshold.
Art Collector Emerges as Tiz the Law’s Prime Foe
Meanwhile, the other odds benefactor from the weekend Derby preps was Art Collector, who dissected his counterparts in the Ellis Park Derby by a deceptively easy 3 ¼ lengths. The 50 Derby qualifying points for Sunday’s gate-to-wire win put Art Collector third with 150 points.
Art Collector’s fourth victory since May 17 also dropped him to second-favorite status at Circa (+600), William Hill (+350), and Oddschecker (+800). He is 1/10 on Circa’s “No” board. Outside of Honor A.P. (+650 at Circa and Oddschecker/+800 at William Hill) and Authentic (+980 at Circa), Art Collector and Tiz the Law are the only horses in single-digits.