Martin Truex Jr. is looking for some revenge at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on Sunday. The 40-year-old, who is the defending champion of the South Point 400, usually does well in Sin City.

Martin Truex Jr. Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Martin Truex Jr. won the South Point 400 last year, and is one of the favorites to win at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. (Image: Getty)

In February, however, Truex and his other Joe Gibbs Racing teammates struggled in Vegas. Truex finished 20th, by far his worst performance at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

One Bet, $100

This Week  Last Bet Season Total 
Martin Truex over Kevin Harvick Lost: Busch to win at Richmond 5-7, Up $640

That won’t happen again. DraftKings made him the second choice at 5/1, right behind Kevin Harvick who is at 9/2. While the odds for Truex aren’t very appealing, there is a wager I found that I really like.

So with this week’s One Bet, $100, I’m taking Truex to defeat Harvick straight up in a matchup proposition wager. Truex is even money to finish in better position than Harvick, who is at -130.

The last NASCAR bet I made was two weeks ago when I thought Kyle Busch would end his season-long losing streak at Richmond. Busch was in the lead for a bit but, ultimately, finished sixth.

I like Truex to finish higher than Harvick because of his results in Las Vegas over the past seven years. This seems like an opportune wager.

Truex Better than Harvick in Las Vegas

Harvick’s been hot in 2020, but Truex has been just as consistent, even if he doesn’t have as many victories. Truex has 16 top-10 finishes, including one victory. Harvick has 23 top 10s, including nine victories.

Tale of the Tape Las Vegas Motor Speedway

Starts Wins Average Finish 
Kevin Harvick 22 2 13.91
Martin Truex Jr. 17 2 11.41

At Las Vegas, however, Truex wins the battle, especially since 2013. In the last seven years, Truex has an average finish of 7.2, while Harvick’s average finish is 15.0.

Truex told reporters that advancing from the Round of 12 would be much easier if he can win the South Point 400.

“I think it would make things a lot easier, a lot less stressful if we could go win at Las Vegas,” Truex said. “That’s our plan. I’m sure everybody, all the guys left, are in the same boat. We want to win this race, so we don’t have to worry.”

Why Truex Will Top Harvick

Even though Harvick is starting on the pole, I believe Truex will prevail over the 44-year-old at the South Point 400. I’m convinced Truex’s 20th-place finish in February was an anomaly.

Truex also said he and crew chief, James Small, have improved as a team, and they are peaking at the right time.

“I think just more confidence as we’ve gone through things and tried things that didn’t work, and just circled back to what we were used to doing,” Truex said. “Definitely confidence is up, not only from the standpoint of me having confidence in what he’s bringing to the race track, but I think him and his decisions. When he’s on the box – split-second decisions – I think he’s obviously gotten more comfortable, and that is something that you can only get with time.”