The second half of the NFL season is upon us and there are five home dogs in Week 10, including the Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, the Washington Football Team, Las Vegas Raiders, and San Francisco 49ers.
Three home dogs will see action during nationally televised games in Week 10. The Miami Dolphins kick off this week as a home dog against the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday Night Football. The Las Vegas Raiders host the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football in Sin City, and the San Francisco 49ers are a home dog at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara for a Monday Night Football matchup against the Los Angeles Rams.
|NFL Week 10 Home Dogs|
- Miami Dolphins +7.5
- New York Jets +11.5
- Washington Football Team +9.5
- Las Vegas Raiders +2.5
- San Francisco 49ers +4
Overall, underdogs are 77-58-1 in the NFL this season, winning at a 57% clip. Home dogs are 24-24 against the spread this season, but are only 16-32 straight up.
TNF: Miami Dolphins +7.5
The Dolphins (2-7) host Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens (6-2) in Miami on a short week. If the postseason were to begin right now, the Ravens would earn the #2 seed in the AFC playoffs.
The Dolphins allow 26.9 ppg and are ranked #6 among the worst-scoring defenses. They also have the fifth-worst offensive DVOA in the league and average just 17.2 ppg. Both teams are in the top 10 for the worst defensive DVOA, with the Dolphins ranked #25 and the Ravens ranked #26.
The Ravens have the best rushing attack in the NFL, averaging 161 yards per game and they should feast off of Miami’s porous run D, which is ranked #30 in rushing DVOA.
The Dolphins are 3-5-1 ATS overall this season, but 0-2 ATS as home dogs this season.
New York Jets +11.5
What can we say about the LOL Jets (2-6) that we haven’t said before? At least Robert Saleh is starting the right guy at quarterback. Mike White missed last week with a finger injury, but he’s the starter going forward. Rookie Zach Wilson is dinged up and simply not ready to play in the NFL, whereas White demonstrated he’s the better game manager and stronger candidate.
The Buffalo Bills (5-3) dropped two out of their last three games, but is this just a mid-season slump, or is it a sign of something more alarming? The Bills were upset by the Jacksonville Jaguars last week, so you can expect they’ll be ready to destroy the Jets this week as -11.5 favorites.
The Jets are 2-6 ATS this season, but 2-1 ATS as home dogs this season.
SNF: Las Vegas Raiders +2.5
Sunday Night Football features a wild AFC West showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs (5-4) and the Las Vegas Raiders (5-3). Each team in the division has five wins, so the AFC West title is wide open. That’s why this Chiefs/Raiders game has high-stakes implications on SNF.
The Raiders are 1-0 ATS as a home dog this season, but 3-1 ATS as an overall underdog this season. The Chiefs are one of the worst betting teams in the NFL with a 2-7 ATS clip.
Kansas City is ranked #28 in defensive DVOA this season, which isn’t surprising. The Chiefs always had a lackluster defense, but their insane offense always bailed them out of trouble. Now that the offense is struggling, the Chiefs are hopelessly mediocre.
MNF: San Francisco 49ers +4
On Monday Night Football, a couple of NFC West rivals will meet when the San Francisco 49ers (3-5) host the LA Rams (7-2). The Rams are fighting the Arizona Cardinals for the division crown, while the 49ers are trying to figure out if they have enough chutzpah to make a run at a wild-card berth.
Expect a defensive chess match on MNF. The Rams are ranked #2 in defensive DOVA, while the 49ers are ranked #6 despite allowing 25.6 ppg.
The 49ers’ defense will have their hands full slowing down Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp. Stafford leads the NFL with 2,771 passing yards and is ranked #2 with 23 touchdowns. Kupp leads the league in receptions (74), touchdown receptions (10), and yards (1,019). The Rams are ranked #4 in offensive DVOA and average 29 ppg for fifth-best in the NFL.
The 49ers are 2-6 ATS this season.
Washington Football Team +9.5
Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Bucs (6-2) visit DC this weekend to take on a Washington Football Team (2-6) that lost four games in a row. WFT is 0-5 ATS as an underdog this season, and you can expect them to go 0-6 ATS after the Bucs (ranked #1 in offensive DVOA) steamroll them.