As the NFL season heads into Week 5, the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans are among the home dogs once again along with a rare appearance by the Seattle Seahawks, plus the Cincinnati Bengals and Washington Football Team.
The Seattle Seahawks host the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday Night Football in a NFC West divisional throwdown. Once upon a time, you could blindly bet the home team during a short week, with home dogs adding additional value. However, the Seahawks struggled this season and the Rams sole loss occurred against the NFL’s only remaining undefeated team.
|NFL WEEK 5 HOME DOGS|
|TNF: LA Rams at Seattle Seahawks||SEA +2.5|
|Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals||CIN +3|
|Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars||JAX +4.5|
|New England Patriots at Houston Texans||HOU +9|
|New Orleans Saints at Washington||WAS +2.5|
In Week 4, the New York Jets were the only home dog to win outright with an upset over the Tennessee Titans, while home dogs went 2-3 against the spread. Overall this season, home dogs are 11-11 ATS and 7-12 SU.
Thursday Night Football: Seahawks +2.5
The NFC West is stacked this season, but the LA Rams (3-1) are currently in second place behind the undefeated Arizona Cardinals (4-0). The Rams are 40-0 under McVay when they have the lead at halftime. When the Rams are down, they’re only 6-22 under McVay. Pete Carroll’s plan is simple: jump out to an early lead.
It’s rare to see the Seahawks lumped together with the sorry lot of home dogs, especially against a divisional rival. In the post-COVID NFL, home-field advantage has dipped to a historical low and now worth a single point. However, Lumen Field in Seattle is still the loudest stadium in pro sports and the rabid fans, known as the “12th Man”, have the ability to disrupt play calling. Even with the home-field edge, the Seahawks are still home dogs.
Home Cats: Bengals +3, Jags +4.5
Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers (3-1) roll into the Queen City in a potential shootout against Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals (3-1) in a battle between two division leaders. The Bengals are +3 home dogs, but can Burrow and Rookie of the Year candidate Ja’Marr Chase keep pace with Rodgers and Davante Adams?
The Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4) are one of two winless teams in the NFL heading into Week 5, which is why we’re not surprised to see the Jags as home dogs once again. Urban Meyer got caught partying with a perky blonde last weekend, when most coaches that were 0-4 would’ve been burning the midnight oil to prep for their team’s first win of the season. The Jags are ranked #30 in defensive DVOA and have the sixth-worst overall defense that allows 28.8 ppg.
The Tennessee Titans (2-2) were upset by the Jets last weekend, so they’ll come into this AFC South divisional game with a chance to get back on track after an embarrassing loss. Expect the Titans to pound the rock against the Jags with Derrick Henry, who leads the NFL in rushing once again with 510 yards, or nearly 150 more than his closest competitor.
The Houston Texans (1-3) dropped three games in a row since they picked off the Jacksonville Jaguars in the season opener. Ever since Tyrod Taylor went down a hamstring injury, the Texans became a popular fade team in Survivor Pools. The New England Patriots (1-3) lost a close game during Tom Brady’s return to Foxboro. You know Bill Belichick wants his team to bounce back with a crushing victory against the Texans. Mac Jones, the favorite to win Rookie of the Year, is no match against Houston’s rookie quarterback Davis Mills. As far as home dogs go, the Texans are the highest one on the board in Week 5 at +9.
It’s funny to think that oddsmakers opened the New Orleans Saints (2-2) at the Washington Football Team (2-2) as a pick’em. Bettors jumped all over the Saints and pushed the line to two points before it settled at Washington +2.5.
Washington’s shoddy defense is ranked #28 in DVOA. They allow 30.5 ppg, or the third-worst scoring defense in the NFL. The Saints have an elite defense once again and ranked #2 in defensive DOVA. Their tight defense allows only 17.3 ppg and ranked fifth overall. The Saints have to rely on their defense because their post-Drew Brees offense averages only 23.5 ppg, or ranked #18 overall.