After last week’s beating the sportsbooks took, oddsmakers seemed to have tightened up their lines for NFL teams this week. It was harder to pick any teams with complete certainty, as been the case the past few weeks.
We stayed with teams that haven’t disappointed us this year. Kansas City and New England as winners, Dallas and Cleveland as losers. The points are probably more than we are comfortable with, but if these teams play to form, another winning weekend will be ours.
Below are our five NFL bets.
1. Atlanta -6 at Cleveland
This line opened at 3.5 and instantly jumped to six. Atlanta is a hot team right now, winning their last three, including last week at Washington.
Cleveland has done nothing to show bettors they are worth putting money on them. They fired coach Hue Jackson and offensive coordinator Todd Haley two weeks ago, and they look as inept as ever.
The Browns have lost four straight, and nothing shows that it won’t go to five.
Take Atlanta and give away the points.
2. New England -6.5 at Tennessee
We are going to keep recommending New England until they prove us wrong. It shouldn’t be this week. The Patriots face a Tennessee team that played on Monday night, so the short week should be a negative. New England is also 5-1 against the spread in its last six games.
Also giving away less than a touchdown to the team with the 30th ranked offense doesn’t seem like enough points. New England blew out Green Bay last week, and should do the same to the Titans.
Take New England and give away the points.
3. Detroit +6.5 at Chicago
There is a minority opinion among gamblers that Chicago is a not nearly as good as everyone wants to believe they are. There may be some truth to that. The Bears don’t have a win against a clear playoff-bound team, defeating Arizona, Tampa Bay, New York Jets and Buffalo Bills.
The Lions aren’t going to the playoffs either, but they may give Chicago a game. Of Detroit’s three wins, two of them were against New England and Green Bay.
Is the 6.5 points the Lions are getting a trap? It is possible, but this game could be closer than many believe it will be.
Take Detroit and the points.
4. Dallas +6 at Philadelphia
These are two teams that are definitely trending in different directions. Philadelphia seems to have figured something out in its road victory over Jacksonville, while Dallas appears to be a team with a mediocre coach and quarterback.
It’s at Philadelphia, so the Eagles have an advantage there, and Dallas is on a short week after losing Monday night to Tennessee. Besides six points doesn’t seem like that many to give away.
Take Philadelphia and give away the points.
5. Arizona +16.5 at Kansas City
I don’t think oddsmakers have the intestinal fortitude to put up the amount points Arizona is going to need to cover this spread. It began at 18, and inexplicably went down to 16.5.
The game is in Kansas City, Arizona is awful, and the Chiefs have scored 30 or more points in every game they have played. It took the Cardinals four games San Francisco.
What are the chances Arizona scores more than their season average of 13.6, and the Chiefs score less than their season average of 36.7? Not very likely.
Take Kansas City and give away the points.