Since 2000, 16 UAE Derby alums have come to the US for their shot at the Kentucky Derby winner’s circle and a blanket of roses.
That group included trendy dark-horse picks like Mubtaahij in 2015 and Mendelssohn in 2018, two horses who drew plenty of money on Derby Day. Mubtaahij went off at 14.40/1, not in the neighborhood of favorite (and winner) American Pharoah at 5/2.
There were only six horses in the 18-horse field who went off at shorter odds. In 2018, Mendelssohn was a bigger bettor’s darling. After winning that year’s UAE Derby, he left the Churchill Downs starter’s gate as the 6.80/1 third choice behind Justify (2.90/1) and My Boy Jack (6.70/1).
Mubtaahij finished eighth. And Mendelssohn? After getting jostled at the start and bumped further going into the turn, he finished dead last in the 20-horse field. Jockey Ryan Moore eased him up in the far turn and he wound up 73 1/2 lengths behind winner Justify.
UAE Derby offers plenty of points
You get the idea. Saturday’s UAE Derby on the Dubai World Cup undercard at Meydan Racecourse offers 100-40-20-10 Derby points, enough to put the winner and runner up safely in the May 7 Derby. But based on its alumni’s history in this race, it offers bettors a poisoned chalice.
Not only is the UAE Derby 0-for-16 in producing a Derby champion this century, its 0-for-16 for putting one of its alums on the board. Master of Hounds in 2011 provided the best finish by a UAE Derby alum. He finished fifth to Animal Kingdom.
And yet, three American runners are in Dubai attempting to kick dirt in history’s face by parlaying a UAE outing into Derby glory. One of those — favorite Pinehurst — is a Bob Baffert charge, which makes him ineligible for the Derby due to that trainer’s suspension.
Surprise, surprise: a Baffert charge is favored
Pinehurst is anywhere from 3/1 to 4/1 on various overseas books, which isn’t surprising given his Baffert connections, his victory in last month’s Group 3 Saudi Derby, and his upwardly trending speed figures. He front-ran the Saudi Derby field in that one-turn, approximately one-mile race for his third win in five races.
Before that, the Twirling Candy colt ran his fastest race, clocking a 102 Equibase Speed Figure in Santa Anita’s Grade 2 San Vicente. Alas, that produced only a runner-up finish to Forbidden Kingdom.
Baffert asks Pinehurst and Flavien Prat to go about 1 3/16 miles, the longest trek of his career and an eighth-of-a-mile further than his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile trek last December. There, Pinehurst finished fifth, his worst showing in five races (3-1-0).
Two other Americans shipping in
The other two US imports are Get Back Goldie and Gilded Age. The son of two-time Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner Goldencents, Get Back Goldie is the longest shot among the 16 entries on the overseas board. You can get him at anywhere from 25/1 to 50/1. He won a conditional race at Meydan last month, then finished sixth in an ungraded stakes at Meydan on March 5.
Gilded Age is listed anywhere from 8/1 to 10/1. The son of Medaglia d’Oro comes in off a third in last month’s Grade 3 Withers at Aqueduct.
The best UAE Derby international choices are Combustion, Sekifu, and Azure Coast. Currently the second favorite at anywhere from 4/1 to 6/1, Japan-based Combustion comes from Godolphin’s powerful and endless stable. The son of 2007 Derby winner Street Sense arrives off a stakes victory at Tokyo Racecourse.
Sekifu nearly caught Pinehurst last time out
Another Japanese product, Sekifu finished second to Pinehurst by only a half-length in the Saudi Derby. He’s listed between 9/2 and 6/1 overseas.
Azure Coast, another Street Sense product who runs primarily in the Middle East, arrives off his Group 3 victory in the UAE 2000 Guineas last month. You can find him anywhere from 11/2 to 8/1.