There was a time in recent years where you would never bet against New England when they face Buffalo. The Patriots have won the last seven meetings, and are 26-4 since 2003.

Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen New England
Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen has led the Bills to a 5-2 record and is looking to break the team’s seven-game losing streak to New England on Sunday at home. (Image: AP)

Now, however, Buffalo is the better team in the AFC East. The Bills are 5-2, while New England is 2-5. That is why with this week’s One Bet, $100, I’m taking Buffalo and giving away four points against New England at home. I believe Buffalo is ready to break New England’s streak on Sunday.

The last bet I made was a winner. I took Carolina on the moneyline against Atlanta, and pocketed a cool $165.

One Bet, $100

This Week  Last Bet Season Total 
Buffalo -4 vs. New England Won: Carolina over Atlanta 31, Up $265

I feel just as strongly about Buffalo defeating New England. Not only do I think the Bills are the better team, but four points seems way too low.

Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott told reporters earlier this week that his team still has to prove they can beat the Patriots.

“The New England Patriots are the team to beat in the AFC East,” McDermott said. “Until they’re beaten, then they’re still the champions.”

Buffalo Seeking Pay Back

The Bills have been the Patriots’ whipping boys for nearly 20 years, and for most of those years, Tom Brady was the quarterback. Now Tom Terrific is gone, flying south to Florida for future winters to lead Tampa Bay.

His replacement hasn’t been able to carry his load. Cam Newton came into Foxboro with a lot of hype, but so far, the former Carolina Panther has been a disappointment. In his first three games, Newton has thrown two touchdowns and two interceptions. The Patriots won two of those games.

Then, Newton came down with COVID-19 and sat out a week. New England got beat by Super Bowl Champs, Kansas City. That loss was understandable: the next two defeats were not. Newton threw zero TDs and five interceptions as the Patriots lost to lowly Denver and San Francisco.

The Bills, on the other hand, have been impressive, despite a stinker last week to the winless New York Jets. Buffalo, along with New England, began the season as the favorite to win the AFC East. Now, however, the Bills are the 4/7 favorite, while the Patriots slipped to 3/2.

Get Over it Pats Fans, Bills are Better

I believe there’s still a little bit of myopia with sportsbooks when it comes to New England. How else can you explain a four-point spread for a team with a much better record at home? Bettors certainly believe in the Bills, where the line opened at three, but quickly went to four and at some sportsbooks, 4.5. At William Hill, 76% of the tickets written were on Buffalo, and the Bills got 82% of the money.

The Bills have the sixth-best passing game in the NFL, and New England will be without All Pro cornerback Stephon Gilmore, who suffered a knee injury in practice on Thursday. Rookie safety Kyle Dugger also is out. Cornerback J.C. Jackson is questionable.

The injuries aren’t limited to defense for New England. They are also without wide receivers Julian Edelman and N’Keal Harry.

It was going to be a tough task to defeat Buffalo, even if New England was healthy. Now it appears to be downright impossible. I will gladly hand over four points and watch Buffalo cruise to an easy victory.

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