Traditionally, mid-June is far too early to declare much about the MLB playoffs. But with the expanded postseason now including 12 teams, there are at least a few squads that have essentially booked their spots in October, even with 100 games remaining in their seasons.

MLB Playoffs Tier List
The New York Yankees are a playoff lock after jumping out to the best record in baseball. (Image: Adam Hunger/AP)

More playoff teams also means more teams in contention and a bigger bubble. I’ve broken down every team into one of five tiers, from the sure things to the no-hopers. I’ll revisit this list throughout the season to see who’s moving up or down, but this is how the MLB playoff picture looks today.

Tier 1: Playoff locks

Team Record World Series Odds (via DraftKings)
New York Yankees 45-16 +500
Houston Astros 38-24 +650
New York Mets 41-22 +750
Los Angeles Dodgers 38-23 +425

The Yankees have been obliterating opponents all year long, and while the Mets have tailed off slightly as they deal with injuries to their two best starting pitchers, they remain in firm control of the NL East. Meanwhile, the Astros hold an 8.5-game lead in the AL West and, while the Dodgers are in a tight battle in the NL West, they’re still the most talented team in the majors and the World Series favorites.

Tier 2: Should be in

Team Record World Series Odds
Toronto Blue Jays 36-25 +950
Tampa Bay Rays 35-26 +2500
Atlanta Braves 36-27 +1100
San Diego Padres 39-24 +1300
San Francisco Giants 35-26 +2500

It’s a testament to just how poorly the Braves started the season that they’re only in the second tier, even after a 13-game winning streak. At least Atlanta can feel more confident it will have a chance to defend its World Series title, even if it can’t catch New York in the NL East. The other four teams on this list are stuck in tough divisional battles against Tier-1 teams, but are strong favorites to make the playoffs as wild cards, if nothing else.

Tier 3: On the playoff bubble

Team Record World Series Odds
Boston Red Sox 33-29 +3500
Minnesota Twins 36-28 +4000
Cleveland Guardians 30-27 +12000
Chicago White Sox 29-31 +2500
Philadelphia Phillies 31-31 +4500
St. Louis Cardinals 37-27 +3000
Milwaukee Brewers 34-29 +1600

Teams have landed on the playoff bubble for a variety of reasons. The Red Sox have recovered from a slow start to turn into a wild-card contender, as have the Phillies. The Cardinals and Brewers are both solid teams, but only one can win the NL Central, and there’s a good chance the loser won’t get a wild-card position.

Meanwhile, while the White Sox started as the clear favorites in the AL Central, they’ve struggled to even stay in the race. That’s put the Twins in a strong position for now, and even the Guardians are 2.5 games ahead of Chicago, meaning we can’t dismiss them from the three-way divisional race, either.

Tier 4: Hopes fading

Team Record World Series Odds
Los Angeles Angels 29-34 +6500
Seattle Mariners 28-34 +11000
Texas Rangers 29-32 +40000
Miami Marlins 28-32 +19000

Remember when the Angels looked like they would finally get Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani into the playoffs? Now, Los Angeles is among three teams in the AL West only vaguely hanging around in the wild-card race. The same goes for the Marlins, who have hung tough, but who just don’t have enough talent to catch the much stronger teams actually in contention for the NL playoffs.

Tier 5: Wait until next year

Team Record World Series Odds
Baltimore Orioles 27-36 +100000
Detroit Tigers 24-37 +100000
Kansas City Royals 20-41 +100000
Oakland Athletics 21-42 +100000
Washington Nationals 23-41 +100000
Chicago Cubs 23-38 +100000
Cincinnati Reds 23-39 +100000
Pittsburgh Pirates 24-37 +100000
Arizona Diamondbacks 29-35 +100000
Colorado Rockies 27-35 +100000

Of this group, the Diamondbacks have played the best and might have had some hope of success in a weaker division. If you’re looking for a team to back at those sweet 1,000-to-one odds, Arizona is probably the way to go. A special shout out to the Reds, who have played .500 baseball since their disastrous 3-19 start.

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