Kentucky Derby future bets tend to be more conservative than they used to be at the Wynn hotel and casino in Las Vegas, where legendary oddsmaker Johnny Avello was known for offering great value with his numbers. Avello is now at DraftKings, and William Hill has taken over as the go-to bookmaker for speculating on who will win at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May.
William Hill updates these odds every Monday, depending on the ebb and flow of Derby preps from around the country. That means you can expect some flux among the favorites – usually flux in the wrong direction for value-minded bettors.
An example: current favorite, Tiz the Law, dropped from 8/1 to 6/1 after the colt registered the best Beyer Speed Figure (100) of any Derby hopeful to date with his three-length victory in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park. A classic stalker in terms of running style, Tiz the Law is trained by Barclay Tagg, who previously brought Funny Cide to the cusp of a Triple Crown in 2003 with wins in the Derby and Preakness Stakes.
Future Odds to Win the 2020 Kentucky Derby
1. Tiz the Law (6/1)
2. Dennis’ Moment (8/1)
3. Independence Hall (10/1)
4. Storm the Court (12/1)
Thousand Words (12/1)
6. Authentic (14/1)
7. Eight Rings (15/1)
8. Enforceable (20/1)
Source: William Hill, Feb. 3
Meanwhile, Gold Street’s gate-to-wire romp in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park cut his odds in half from 100/1 to 50/1. Withers Stakes winner Max Player made his debut on the William Hill futures board at 75/1 with his breakout victory at Aqueduct Park. He beat the favorite, Shotski, who dropped slightly from 80/1 to 75/1. The show horse on that board, the fast-closing Portos, checks in at 125/1.
Thousand Words, one of Bob Baffert’s 2020 Derby prospects, remains 12/1 after romping to victory in the Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita. The Lewis runner-up, Royal Act, remains at 100/1. High Velocity, the “other Baffert” in the field, fell from 100/1 to 25/1 after finishing third.
Attention now turns to a couple of the other low-priced offerings: Independence Hall (10/1) and Storm the Court (12/1), both of whom run this week in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. That Derby prep offers 10-4-2-1 points to the top four finishers.