Jackie’s Warrior made himself the juvenile to watch with his victories in the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes and two other races. The overseas bookmakers paid enough attention to make the 2-year-old star the 4/1 favorite to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
Oddschecker put Breeders’ Cup Juvenile future lines on 26 horses. That race is Nov. 6 at Keeneland. Jackie’s Warrior and Dr. Schivel (8/1), who won the Del Mar Futurity, are the only two sitting in single digits.
The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile is one of those races bettors put stock into when gauging hopefuls for the following year’s Kentucky Derby. And the list of winners sparks recognition in any racing fan: Game Winner, Classic Empire, New Year’s Day, Uncle Mo, Unbridled’s Song, Timber Country, and Arazi, among others.
Even so, going all-in on the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner in Derby futures is often a poisoned chalice. Only two Juvenile winners, Street Sense in 2006 and Nyquist 10 years later, found the Churchill Downs winner’s circle six months later. Timber Country won the 1995 Preakness, but no other Juvenile winner captured a Triple Crown race.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Futures Not a Perfect Crystal Ball
Last year provided a classic example. Dennis’ Moment came into the Juvenile as the hot Derby prospect after a dominant win in the Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs. Bettors hammered his Juvenile odds down to 2/1 in the futures and 9/10 at the track. Dennis’ Moment rewarded them for their faith by finishing last.
At the same time, Storm the Court left the Santa Anita Park gate at 45/1. You could have had him on the futures market at 33/1. When Storm the Court won, you would have cashed a fat ticket. Given what Storm the Court has done since – he’s 0-for-6 in 2020 — it would be the last win ticket to date you’ve cashed.
What else is the Juvenile futures market telling us? Jackie’s Warrior clearly established himself as the early favorite. The Steve Asmussen-trainee is 3-for-3 and owns the best Beyer Speed Figure (95) of any 2-year-old this year. Dr. Schivel ran four times this year, winning his last two under now-former trainer Luis Mendez at Del Mar. The son of Violence moved to Mark Glatt, a more seasoned trainer.
Here’s Your Baffert 2-Year-Old to Watch
Behind Jackie’s Warrior and Dr. Schivel, you find the Asmussen-trained Calibrate and Bob Baffert’s Freedom Fighter – both at 11/1. Both ran only once and both won their debuts: Calibrate in a Saratoga maiden and Freedom Fighter at Del Mar.
Sitting right behind them is Sittin On Go (12/1), who turned in a credible Storm the Court impression when he won this year’s Iroquois Stakes at 24/1.
Juveniles to Watch
Here are the listed odds for the 26 horses listed on the Juvenile overseas markets:
|Calibrate, Freedom Fighter||11/1|
|Sittin On Go||12/1|
|Cazadero, Founder, Mutasaabeq, Spielberg, Team Merchants||20/1|
|Dixie’s Two Stents, Roderick||25/1|
|Nutsie, Risk And Reward, Weston, Wyfire||33/1|
|Drop Anchor, Fearless Fly, Irish Unity, Papetu, Tenor||40/1|