If the election betting odds prove to be correct, Hillary Clinton is poised to become the next president of the United States.
As Americans head to the polls on Election Day, Clinton is the overwhelming favorite at overseas books and online betting platforms. And while the Real Clear Politics (RCP) polling average shows Clinton with just a 3.2-point lead nationwide, bettors are more strongly convinced that Republican Donald Trump is about to be fired from the race.
Irish bookmaker Paddy Power’s final line is Clinton 1/6 and Trump 4/1. London-based Betfair says Clinton has an 83 percent chance to win compared to Trump at 17 percent.
PredictIt.org, the prediction betting market operated by New Zealand’s Victoria University, is selling shares of Clinton at 82 cents to Trump at 21 cents. Bovada lists Clinton at -550 and Trump at +375.
In a matter of hours, the lines and odds will all become moot and the 45th president of the US will be declared.
Clinton said on Twitter, “Everything we’ve worked toward comes down to today.” Trump tweeted, “TODAY WE MAKE AMERICAN GREAT AGAIN!”
It won’t be until at least tomorrow that the precise percentage of Americans who voted is known, but if betting is any indication, turnout might be rather high. The raucous and unpredictable 2016 campaign between Clinton and Trump has led to record betting in the United Kingdom.
The UK’s “Brexit” vote is thought to be a driving force. Fresh of a passed referendum to leave the European Union (EU) in June, Brits, like Americans, are keeping a close eye on the 2016 US presidential race. While Americans can’t legally place a financial wager on the election outcome, in Europe the practice is widely accepted.
Leading up to Election Day, some $140 million had been wagered on either Clinton or Trump on the Betfair exchange. In 2012, a total of just $80 million was bet.
“We think it is because of how raw the Brexit vote is in people’s minds. They’re not convinced yet that it’s a done deal,” Betfair spokeswoman Naomi Totten told Reuters.
The majority of polls leading up to the Brexit vote predicted that the UK would stay in the EU, albeit by a slim majority. Instead, the UK voted to leave by a 52 percent to 48 percent margin.
But unlike a simple majority vote in the UK, the presidential election is of course a state-by-state process based on the Electoral College.
For Trump to win the White House, he’ll need to win Florida, Ohio, and at least several other key swing states. The consensus among the pollsters is that the support simply isn’t there.
If Trump wins the general election, one Brit will certainly be ecstatic.
Spreadex, a British-based sportsbook, says it received a Ł200,000 ($247,650) wager on a Trump victory. That would certainly make the bettor great again, as the unnamed risk-taker would net over $619,000.
William Hill said its largest wager was on Clinton, and the bet totaled about $185,000.
“It’s official, the US election is now our single biggest betting event ever and we are seeing some huge bets being placed,” Spreadex analyst Connor Campbell told the UK’s Independent newspaper.