Belgium is estimated to have 14% chances of winning the European Championship, just ahead of England. That’s according to American company Gracenote, which specializes in providing sports content and technologies using a football ranking system they developed to run one million simulations of the Euro 2020 tournament.


Belgium national football team
The Belgian national team is ready to challenge ahead of Euro 2020. (Image: Twitter / @SMignolet)

The algorithm sees France and Spain behind Belgium and England on the possible winners’ list. According to the numbers crunched by Gracenote, there’s a 50% chance that one of the four national teams mentioned wins the trophy on July 11 at London’s iconic Wembley Stadium.

Home advantage puts England ahead of France, Spain, Italy, and Portugal

Belgium is rated as the top team in Europe by Gracenote, which gives them a 14% chance to triumph in the tournament. England is only ranked sixth, but is second-favorite to keep the trophy in London after the final. The English are also at 14% to win, the Gracenote says, but Belgium is still in a better position, as other key indicators suggest.

Home advantage was taken into account too. England will play all three group games at home along with their Round of 16 match, but only if they win Group D. The semifinals and the final will be hosted at Wembley, leaving Gareth Southgate’s men with only having to play the quarterfinal away from home in the ideal case they go all the way to the last act.

France (12%), Spain (10%), Italy (9%), and Portugal (8%) are the next four most likely winners of Euro 2020, according to Gracenote. The most likely final at Euro 2020 is England against Belgium, but don’t put too much money on that bet; the numbers say there’s only a 2.9% chance of it happening.

“A combination of Gracenote’s comprehensive international football results database and our World Football Ranking methodology means we can ‘play’ this summer’s European Championship a million times to assess the most likely things to happen,” Simon Gleave, Head of Sports Analysis at Gracenote, explains. “Our simulations highlight the advantage that England and other teams are receiving from hosting some of the matches. England’s chances, in particular, are boosted by a potential six matches at Wembley as the Three Lions rise from sixth most likely winners to second favorites, albeit with only 14% chance of winning Euro 2020.”


Euro 2020 - who will win it?
Who has the highest chances of winning Euro 2020, according to Gracenote’s algorithm?

Four national teams have ‘no chance’ of winning Euro 2020

The eight most likely quarter-finalists are Spain, England, Italy, Belgium, Denmark, Netherlands, France, and Germany. The study’s favorites to reach the semifinals are Belgium, Spain, England, and France. According to the simulations, North Macedonia, Finland, Slovakia, and Hungary stand no chance in front of their glamorous rivals.

All four have 0% chances of lifting the trophy. They do have their way through to the knock-out stages, though. Finland has a 25% chance of playing in the Round of 16, while Hungary, part of the same group as 2016 winners Portugal and giants Germany and France, is at 32%.

The numbers also indicate that Russia, Wales, the Czech Republic, Turkey, North Macedonia, Slovakia, Hungary, and Finland won’t make it into the knock-out battles. Bookies have France at +450 to win Euro 2020, with England second at +550 and Belgium third at +600. Italy, Germany, Portugal, and Spain are next at +800, with the Netherlands at +1400. North Macedonia and Finland are at +50,000 to lift the Cup on July 11.

Gracenote - who will qualify from the groups?
The 16 favorites to qualify from the group stage at Euro 2020. (Image: Gracenote)