When the opening odds are set for the professional football, they tends to be slight changes with a couple of games, but this week NFL line movement is prevalent in several match ups. One contest the line moved two points, usually unheard of, though often seen in college football.
The question is do you follow the sharps, believing they have an inside line on the game, and that is why they are betting it down? Or do you go against them and look at each game as an opportunity?
Below we look at five bets where the opening line moved at least a point, and have some interesting propositions.
1. Atlanta +1.5 at Washington
The line on this game has been all over the place. It opened at three, got bet down to one, and is now seeing money on Washington that bumped it up to 1.5. Atlanta is coming off a bye week, which always tend to give teams that rest a week and advantage.
But the Falcons are near last in run defense, and Washington running back is putting up numbers like he had when he was a rookie. He has had 90 or more rushing yards in each of his last three games.
The NFL is a passing league now, but quarterback Alex Smith should be able to get some good looks once Peterson establishes the run game.
Take Washington and give away the points.
2. Chicago +10 at Buffalo
Oddsmakers put this game at 8.5 and the sharps went crazy, betting on Chicago so heavy the line moved to 10. The Bills have been double-digit dogs three previous times, and covered two of the three, including winning outright against Minnesota.
This is the first time for the Bears to be laying this many points. It makes us feel a little uneasy, but in three games where they had seven or more points, they won two of three.
Plus the Bills are starting Nathan “Interception Prone” Peterman, and a touchdown and a field goal are not that hard to score against Buffalo.
Take Chicago and give away the points.
3. Kansas City -8.5 at Cleveland
Why have the sharps bet this down from 10.5 to 8.5, and at some places seven or eight points? The last time we checked the Chiefs were the second-best team in the league, and the Browns one of the worst.
So bad is Cleveland that they fired their head coach and offensive coordinator this week. I don’t think interim coach Gregg Williams is Knute Rockne, so don’t expect any rousing speeches.
Baker Mayfield might be more free on offense now, but that is not necessarily a good thing for a rookie quarterback. For Kansas City, quarterback Patrick Mahomes should have an enjoyable day picking about the Cleveland defense.
Take Kansas City and give away the points.
4. Tampa Bay +6.5 at Carolina
Another game that has been affected by money on the underdog, and again it is puzzling. The Buccaneers could be losing their coach soon, as Dirk Koetter has done nothing to show that he should be kept by the organization.
Carolina is still a solid football team, and a playoff contender. Quarterback Cam Newton should be able to move the ball down the field, and Tampa Bay just doesn’t have the weapons to stop him.
Take Carolina and give away the points.
5. Green Bay -5.5 at New England
This game moved from -7 to -5.5 and that could be attributed to Tom Brady’s comments about Aaron Rodgers being a great quarterback. Sounds like Tom Brady was taking a page out of the Lou Holtz playbook of buttering up your opponent before you crush them.
He had similarly complimentary remarks about Kansas City’s Mahomes, and then the Chiefs left with a 43-40 victory after being a 4-point favorite. Could they do the same to the Packers? We think so.
Take New England and give away the points.
