They ran the Remsen Stakes, a Grade 2 race for 2-year-olds at Aqueduct on Saturday. Forget that the Remsen hasn’t produced a Kentucky Derby winner in 25 years because, despite that, the race impacted this week’s Kentucky Derby futures markets.
How big an impact? Not only did Remsen winner Brooklyn Strong have his odds carved, but all five horses who ran the Remsen watched their odds move – regardless of their finish.
Brooklyn Strong, who picked up his third victory in four starts when he rallied for a neck victory over Ten for Ten in the Remsen, checked in at 90/1 in Circa Sports’ Kentucky Derby Futures Board. Risk Supervisor Paul Zilm opened the gelding at 200/1 when he unveiled Circa’s board last week.
William Hill Nevada, meanwhile, moved him to 85/1. Last week, Brooklyn Strong was at 125/1.
Brooklyn Strong a New York Bargain
New York-bred Brooklyn Strong — who won the Remsen at 7/1 — has already earned his keep. A $5,000 purchase at the Ocala Breeders’ Sale as a 2-year-old in training, Brooklyn Strong banked $195,000 in his four starts. He owns three wins and a third in those starts. But before majority owner Mark Schwartz plans his Kentucky Derby victory party, a history lesson is in order.
The last Remsen winner to capture the Derby was 1995 Derby winner Thunder Gulch – in 1994. One year earlier, Go for Gin pulled off the Remsen-Derby double, winning the 1993 Remsen and the 1994 Derby. Some other good horses over the past decade, most notably Honor Code (2013), Mohaymen (2015), and Catholic Boy (2017), own Remsen titles.
Circa Sports 2021 Kentucky Derby Top Contenders
|Life Is Good||+1,100|
|Caddo River, Keepmeinmind, Jackie’s Warrior, Red Flag||+3,500|
|Dr. Schivel, Hot Rod Charlie, Olympiad||+4,500|
|Mandaloun, Midnight Bourbon, Vittorio||+5,000|
|Rombauer, Sittin On Go, Smiley Sobotka, Spielberg, Super Stock, Therideofalifetime||+7,000|
|Get Her Number, Highly Motivated||+7,500|
|Brooklyn Strong, Parnelli||+9,000|
Interestingly, Ten for Ten, the neck loser to Brooklyn Strong in the Remsen, enjoys shorter odds at William Hill Nevada. That book dropped him from 100/1 to 75/1. At Circa, Known Agenda, who finished third, moved from 100/1 to 175/1. Fourth-place Pickin’ Time jumped from 100/1 to 250/1, and last-place Erawan from 250/1 to 400/1.
On the other end of the futures boards, Essential Quality and Life Is Good remained the top two choices. Essential Quality is 10/1 at Circa and 8/1 at William Hill. Life Is Good is 11/1 at Circa and 10/1 at William Hill.
Circa lists 27 horses at 90/1 or lower. William Hill lists 29.
Derby Futures Oddsmakers Allow for Allowance Races
Sunday’s closing-day New York Stallion Series Stakes at Aqueduct brought another horse into the picture. Hold the Salsa won his second stakes race, earning a 25% cut in his odds (from 200/1 to 150/1) at Circa, and a 26.6% cut (from 150/1 to 110/1) at William Hill.
Circa’s list now sits at 172 horses after Zilm removed Princess Noor from the board. Once 500/1, the filly retired Sunday after suffering an injury in Saturday’s Starlet Stakes at Los Alamitos.
William Hill’s list is up to 141. That book added Warrior’s Pride at 150/1 after he won an allowance at Gulfstream Park by nearly five lengths. That was his second victory. And Pioneerof the Nile progeny, Weyburn, debuted at 125/1 after a maiden-breaking win at Aqueduct.
William Hill 2021 Kentucky Derby Futures Board
|Life Is Good||10/1|
|Classier, Red Flag||35/1|
|Caddo River, Highly Motivated, Jackie’s Warrior||40/1|
|Dr. Schivel, Hot Rod Charlie, Keepmeinmind, Olympiad||50/1|
|Cazadero, Get Her Number, Huntsinger, Jaxon Traveler, Mandaloun, Midnight Bourbon, Mutasaabeq, Smiley Sobotka, Spielberg, Stayin’ Out Late, Ten for Ten||75/1|
|Greatest Honor, Speaker’s Corner||80/1|
|Brooklyn Strong, Savile Row||85/1|
Holding up his customary spot as the longest of long shots is Valiant Thor. William Hill jacked up his odds to 500/1 after he finished seventh by more than 13 lengths in a $16,000 claimer on Saturday at Tampa Bay Downs. Circa lists him at 300/1.
Since winning his debut July 1 with a 97 Equibase Speed Figure, Valiant Thor has finished eighth, eighth, seventh, and seventh in his next four. Twice, he’s recorded a zero Equibase, including his start before that — a November $25,000 claimer at Gulfstream Park West.