Two weeks ago, we had our first losing week in our EPL Value Bets,. We easily won the Burnley-Southampton game. But stumbled on Liverpool-Norwich – despite predicting the Reds would score late, which they did — and by taking the under on Arsenal-Newcastle.
This week, we have two games that offer what we look for in terms of overlay value vs. trends and percentages.
Two weeks ago: 1-0-2 (W-D-L)
Season: 4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Crystal Palace +1/2 at Brighton and Hove Albion
Crystal Palace got exactly what it needed last week: a Patrick Van Aanholt free-kick bender around the Newcastle wall that not only brought the Eagles their first win of 2020, but released the pressure valve on the relegation worries that had set in. In turn, this should open the gates for Palace to play easier, less-stressful football.
Brighton, meanwhile, snatched a key point in its fight to avoid relegation last week against Sheffield United. More road wins like that and Brighton will avoid the drop. That said, this line opened at Brighton -1/4 and has trended upward, which makes no sense.
Yes, the Seagulls won this fixture 3-1 last year, but Palace is 8-8-5 on the road against bottom-half teams. Three of the last five were draws, meaning this line would have cashed you a ticket. Combine all that with the fact the AMEX is hardly the fortress it was when Brighton joined the Premier League a few years ago and storming the gates with Palace is an easy call.
Take Crystal Palace + 1/2
Southampton at West Ham United, Over 2 ¾ goals
If there’s ever such a thing as a noble defeat, well, West Ham took one against eventual title-winners Liverpool. The Hammers actually led, 2-1 early in the second half before Liverpool did what Liverpool does: score twice in 13 minutes for the 3-2 victory.
The question for David Moyes’ side is can they use that excellent effort in games like this to get out of the bottom three and ensure Premier League safety? The question for Southampton centers around converting the numerous offensive chances the Saints are generating.
Their 2-0 victory over Aston Villa should have been 5-0, such were the chances the Saints had. Given the end-to-end style expected here, more chances – and more goals are expected. Over the past three-and-change seasons, Southampton has gone 10-6-12 against sides in the bottom half of the table, but kept just three clean sheets in that span. There is nothing in this game that lends itself to Southampton (a minus-14 goal differential) suddenly finding its inner defense and nothing to suggest West Ham (-16) will either.
Especially since there have been at least three goals scored in each of the last five fixtures in East London.
Take Over 2 ¾ goals