If you’re an NBA totals bettor, there are five teams that have been fade-worthy when betting the under, including the Dallas Mavericks, Brooklyn Nets, Denver Nuggets, Minnesota Timberwolves, and Oklahoma City Thunder.
Scoring is down a tick in the NBA with the new rules, so players and teams are slowly adjusting, which is one of the trends you need to keep a close eye on in the first half of the season. On defense, teams can guard opponents on the perimeter a little tighter knowing they won’t get whistled for a shooting foul beyond the arc that awards three free throws.
James Harden from the Brooklyn Nets is one of the players who slowly adjusted to the new rules. He’s getting to the free-throw line less often and his scoring output is down, which is one of the numerous reasons why the Nets failed to hit the over nine times already this season.
|NBA Betting Trends
|O/U Record||S/U Record|
|Oklahoma City Thunder||2-7-0||3-6|
If you’re looking at betting trends to back a team that can hit the over, then the Charlotte Hornets are 9-3 ATS with the best overs record in the NBA. The Hornets are the perfect storm of a team that can generate a lot of points, yet whose horrendous defense gives up a ton of points, making them an ideal over team.
Fading good teams: Mavs, Nets, Nugs
The Denver Nuggets have the best defense in the NBA through the first 10 games. They’re the only team holding opponents to under the century mark, allowing 98.5 ppg. Without Jamal Murray (ACL) and Michael Porter Jr (back), the Nuggets are ranked #5 and are in the top five for the lowest-scoring teams in the league, averaging 101.9 ppg. The lo-fi scoring combined with the stifling defense is one of the reasons why the Nuggets are 8-2 in unders this season.
The Brooklyn Nets are a team that everyone expects to blow out their opponents, even without Kyrie Irving. Harden has yet to adapt to the new rules, and the Nets are in the top 10 among the lowest-scoring teams in the league. The Nets are also 9-2 when betting unders.
Under new head coach Jason Kidd, the Mavs started the season 7-3, but they only generate 102.4 ppg, ranking #6 among the lowest-scoring teams in the league. They have a top-10 defense and are ranked #10 overall, allowing 104.7 ppg. If you’ve been betting unders this season, the Mavs are 7-1-2.
Bad teams, no defense: Thunder, T-Wolves
The Minnesota Timberwolves expect another winter of discontent with another subpar team that averages only 104 ppg with the eighth-worst offense in the league. They began the season 3-6, and the outlook is grim for the perennial basement dweller in the Western Conference. If you’ve been betting unders this season, then you know the Timberwolves are always on the table. Throughout their first nine games, the under went 7-2 for the Timberwolves.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are one of only two teams that failed to average 100 or more points per game with a paltry 98.1 ppg output. They have an average defense that allows only 107.4 ppg. Put the two together and you have a team that hits a lot of unders. The Thunder are 3-6 straight up this season, yet are 7-2 when betting the under.