Week 12’s NFL Home Dog Alert includes the LA Rams getting points at home on Monday Night Football, along with the same three bad teams — the New York Jets, Washington Redskins, and Cincinnati Bengals — as underdogs at home once again.
The Rams (6-4) host the visiting Baltimore Ravens (8-2), but oddmakers made the Rams a +3 home dog. The Ravens recently saw their Super Bowl odds adjusted to 9/2 as the third-biggest favorite on the board at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas.
Meanwhile, the Rams saw their Super Bowl 54 chances drop drastically to 50/1 odds.
Home Dog Alert – NFL Week 12
Cincinnati Bengals +6.5
NY Jets +2.5
Washington Redskins +3.5
LA Rams +3 (MNF)
The winless Bengals (0-10) are the last team in the league still seeking their first win. AFC North divisional games are classic smash-mouth football matchups, but this week’s tilt features the Pittsburgh Steelers on extra rest after losing an ugly, Thursday Night Football brawl against the Cleveland Browns.
The Redskins (1-9) are fresh off a loss to the NY Jets (3-7), who have miraculously won two games in a row.
Cincinnati Bengals +6.5
The Bengals won’t win this week, but they still have outs to fade a winless 0-16 season. The Bengals host the LOLJets in Week 13, and then play the tanking Dolphins in Miami in Week 17. They also have two more divisional games against the Cleveland Browns, who are also their intrastate rival.
The Steelers (5-5) are only 1-3 in AFC North games this season. They had a four-game win streak snapped by Baker Mayfield and the Browns on Thursday Night Football. In Week 4, the Bengals lost 27-3 to the Steelers. Mason Rudolph threw two touchdowns and outplayed Andy Dalton. Rookie Ryan Finley gets the start in the rematch after the Bengals benched Dalton prior to their bye week.
Jets +2.5 and Redskins +3.5
The Jets won a bum fight last Sunday against the Redskins. Gang Green’s offense exploded for a season-high 34 points that included four touchdowns from Sam Darnold. The Jets feasted on a porous defense, and took advantage of rookie QB, Dwayne Haskins’ inexperience.
Chucky and the Oakland Raiders (6-4) are in town for a vintage AFC matchup. The Raiders are on the upswing, and are in the hunt for an AFC wild-card berth. The Raiders aren’t good on the road with a 1-3 away record, and they need to stay focused and remain in the moment against the Jets before looking ahead to Week 13’s divisional matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Detroit Lions (3-6-1) limp into DC without their starting QB, Matt Stafford (broken bones in his back). Even without Stafford, the Skins are still a home dog by more than a field goal.
The Skins scored only 125 points this season, which ranks them dead last in the NFL with an average of just 12.5 points per game. In five out of their last seven games, the Skins scored nine or fewer points. The Skins scored 17 points against the Jets last week, which included two late scores — a garbage-time touchdown with 1:11 remaining plus a fluke, 45-yard touchdown run on a screen pass to backup RB, Derrius Guice.
Monday Night Football: LA Rams +3
The Rams are in deep trouble. With a 6-4 record, Sean McVay’s squad finds themselves on the outside looking in.
The San Francisco 49ers lead the NFC West with a 9-1 record, and the Seattle Seahawks sit in second place with an 8-2 record. Whoever finishes second in the NFC West will probably secure one of the wild-card spots. That means the Rams have a lot of work ahead of them. The Rams are on the playoff bubble, and have to win the rest of their games for a shot at the NFC wild card.
To complicate matters, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens invade Hollywood this weekend. The Ravens are only a 3-point favorite, which makes the Rams a home dog on Monday Night Football.
The Rams finally fed Todd Gurley the ball last week in a victory over the Chicago Bears. Gurley looked like his old self with 133 combined yards and a touchdown.
“He just said he was going to pound the rock, so just get ready,” commented Gurley on what head coach McVay told him shortly before kickoff.
With six games to go, there’s no point in saving Gurley for the postseason because the Rams are essentially in playoff mode right now.
A long time ago in a galaxy far, far away, bettors would blindly bet a Monday Night Football home dog as a “system play”. However, in recent years, Monday Night Football home dogs have been losers, going 3-7-1 in their last 11 games (not including Week 11’s game in Mexico).
🐶Do you have that friend who still talks about "home underdogs" on Monday Night Football? Tell them to settle down. The last two seasons vs the spread dogs are 3-7-1 & have not been profitable since going 2-0 in 2015. Trends, like most good things, almost always come to an end!
— Johnny Detroit (@Johnny_Detroit) November 18, 2019
If you count the Chargers as a home dog in Mexico City, then home dogs are 3-8-1 in their last 12 Monday Night Football matchups.