The Green Bay Packers and Indianapolis Colts throw down in a marquee matchup for Week 11 with two grizzled NFL gunslingers, Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers calling the shots. Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens host Derrick Henry and the Tennessee Titans in a battle of 6-3 teams.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have a perfect season on the line, yet face an easy foe, which means a 10-0 start seems very likely. The Jacksonville Jaguars won the first game of the season, then lost every game since then. Only the New York Jets are worse than the Jags.
Meanwhile, the LOL Jets, the only winless team in the NFL at 0-9, visit Hollywood and hope they can finally get off the schneid in Week 11.
Here’s a quickie betting rundown of this weekend’s action.
Game of the Week: Packers/Colts
Green Bay Packers (7-2) at Indianapolis Colts (6-3)… Rodgers or Rivers? Or how about a defensive slog? The Colts allow 19.7 ppg, which is fourth-best in the NFL. Indy’s D is ranked #5 in DVOA. Green Bay’s defense is better than you think and ranked #7 in DVOA, despite allowing nearly 25 points per game. The Packers are 6-3 ATS and 4-1 on the road. LINE: GB +1.5
6-3 vs. 6-3
Tennessee Titans (6-3) at Baltimore Ravens (6-3)… A battle of 6-3 teams in the AFC. The Titans started 5-0, but hit the doldrums ever since with a 1-3 record. The Titans also slipped to 3-6 ATS on the season. Derrick Henry and the Titans face one of the toughest defenses in the NFL. The Ravens allow the fewest points in the league at 18.3 ppg, while the Titans generate 27.7 ppg. LINE: Titans +5.5
Good Times, Bad Times
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8)… Jake Luton gets the start once again at QB over the injured Gardner Minshew. The Jags lost eight games in the row. The Steelers are the opposite, with a perfect 9-0 record as the only undefeated team in the NFL heading into Week 11. LINE: Pittsburgh -10.5
Philadelphia Eagles (3-5-1) at Cleveland Browns (6-3)… The NFL has nine 6-3 teams, and the Browns are one of six of them in the AFC. If the Browns want to land a playoff spot, they can’t afford to lose a non-conference game against the three-win Eagles. Both Cleveland and Philly are 3-6 ATS this season. LINE: Cleveland -3
Atlanta Falcons (3-6) at New Orleans Saints (7-2)… No Drew Brees? No problem. Jameis Winston is ready to fill in for Brees, who will miss several games with multiple fractured ribs. The Saints went 5-0 last season, including 5-0 ATS when Brees missed time with a thumb injury. In the latest word from the Big Easy, backup Taysom Hill handled the offense in practice, so he could also get the starting nod. The Falcons won two in a row since starting the season 1-5. The Saints and their #1 ranked defense in terms of DVOA, are riding a six-game winning streak. LINE: New Orleans -4
Miami Dolphins (6-3) at Denver Broncos (3-6)… Drew Lock is dinged up again. Brett Rypien to the rescue? Tua and the Dolphins are cruising on a five-game winning streak. Heading into Week 11, the Dolphins outgunned their opponents by 69 points for the fourth-best point differential in the AFC and fifth overall in the NFL. Miami is also one of the best teams in the NFL ATS with a 7-2 clip. LINE: Miami -3.5
Cat Teams: Lions, Panthers, Bengals Oh My
Cincinnati Bengals (2-6-1) at Washington (2-7)… Washington averages only 20 points per game this season, making them fourth-worst in the NFL in scoring. The Bengals are 0-4-1 on the road, but they’re 6-3 ATS. LINE: CINCY +1.5
Detroit Lions (4-5) at Carolina Panthers (3-7)… The Panthers will be short Teddy Bridgewater (knee) and Christian McCafferty (shoulder). CMAC is a definite scratch, but Bridgewater could be a game-time decision, which is why there’s no available line. Former XFL player PJ Walker could get the start. If not, Matt Rhule will tap rookie Will Grier to get his first taste of the big time. The Panthers are on a five-game skid, but face the league’s fourth-worst defense that allows 29.7 ppg. LINE: ???
New England Patriots (4-5) at Houston Texans (2-7)… The Pats won two in a row and now have a somewhat respectable 4-5 record. They’re also still in contention for a playoff spot. The total is 48.5 o/u for these two low-scoring teams (Pats 21 ppg vs Texans 22.5 ppg). LINE: New England -2
Dallas Cowboys (2-7) at Minnesota Vikings (4-5)… The Vikings are one win away from climbing to .500, after starting the season 0-3. They are 4-1 after falling into a 1-4 hole. Rookie Justin Jefferson established himself as a stud wide receiver, while Dalvin Cook leads the NFL in rushing. The Vikes struggle at home with a 1-3 record, but they’re 6-3 ATS. The Cowboys are a dismal 1-8 ATS, for the worst against the spread record in the league. LINE: Minnesota -7
Poo Emoji Game of the Week
New York Jets (0-9) at LA Chargers (2-7)… Sam Darnold has a shoulder injury and won’t play, which is good news because the ex-USC QB won’t be embarrassed in front of his family and hometown friends when the Jets are spanked by Justin Herbert and the Chargers. The LOL Jets are 2-7 ATS and we’re continuing to fade them this season so long as Adam Gase is the head coach. LINE: LAC -9.5
Prime Time Games
SNF: Kansas City Chiefs (8-1) at Las Vegas Raiders (6-3)… The Chiefs lost only one game this season and it happened against the Raiders in Week 5 when Las Vegas ambushed the Super Bowl champs 40-32 at Arrowhead. It’s payback time for Kansas City and Andy Reid. After starting the season 3-3, the Raiders won three straight games. The total in this potential Sunday Night Football shootout is 57 points. KC averages 31.8 points per game — second-best in the NFL. The Raiders are ranked #8 overall with 28.3 ppg. LINE: KC -8
MNF: LA Rams (6-3) at Tampa Bay Bucs (7-3)… Sean McVay and the LA Rams hit the road to take on Tom Brady and the Bucs. Tommy Boy is 3-1 at home in Tampa Bay this season. The Rams, led by Aaron Donald, boast the second-best defense in the NFL allowing only 18.7 ppg. They’re only ranked #9 in DVOA, compared to the Bucs defense, which is ranked #2 in DVOA. The Bucs are stingy as well, allowing just 22.6 ppg. The total for this Monday Night Football joust is 48.5. LINE: Tampa Bay -4