The Jacksonville Jaguars and Denver Broncos each have a 10-2 record in NFL totals betting if you like to bet the under, and the Seattle Seahawks are right behind them with a 9-2-1 record.
Eight teams have a totals record that’s 8-4 or better when betting the under, including the Detroit Lions, Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, New York Giants, Seattle Seahawks, Denver Broncos, and Jacksonville Jaguars.
|NFL Total Betting – Best Under Teams
|New York Giants||17.6||8-3-1||28|
|Green Bay Packers||23.6||8-4||3|
The five lowest-scoring teams in the NFL are on this list of best under teams, including the Houston Texans (13.7 ppg), Jacksonville Jaguars (15.0 ppg), Chicago Bears (16.8 ppg), Detroit Lions (16.9 ppg), and New York Giants (17.6 ppg).
Five out of the worst-seven teams in offensive DVOA are also on this list, including the dead-last Jaguars (#32), Lions (#29), Giants (#28), Jaguars (#27), and Bears (#26).
Can’t score: Jags, Texans, Giants
Blindly betting the under in any Jaguars or Broncos game this season has been a profitable venture. Both teams are at a 10-2 clip, so even if they hit the over the rest of the season, it will still turn a profit. The Jaguars head to Nashville to play the Tennessee Titans, and the total slowly dropped from 46 to 43.5 over this past week.
The New York Giants don’t know who will start at quarterback for them this week against the Los Angeles Chargers. Daniel Jones has a neck injury, and Mike Glennon is recovering from a concussion. Jake Fromm could start in Week 14, which is weird considering he was on the Buffalo Bills practice squad a couple of weeks ago. The Giants/Chargers game opened with a total of 46.5, but that’s been bet down three points to 43.5.
The Seattle Seahawks head to Houston to battle the two-win Texans, who are +8.5 home dogs. Quarterback Russell Wilson denied rumors that he’d waive his no-trade clause to play for the Denver Broncos or New York Giants. He looked great last week after struggling in the previous two games after rushing back from finger surgery.
The Seahawks’ offense barely averages less than 20 ppg, while the dreadful Texans score a league-low of 13.7 ppg. Head coach David Culley benched Tyrod Taylor, so rookie Davis Mills will start the rest of the season. The total for the Seahawks/Texans opened at 44.5, but it dropped to a near consensus of 41, except at DraftKings where it’s trading at a market low of 40.5. The Seahawks/Texans is the lowest total on the betting board right now with everyone hammering the under. It could dip below 40 by kickoff on Sunday.
NFC North unders
Three teams from the NFC North are 8-4 in betting the under this season. The Detroit Lions lack a powerful offense, so we really should call them the Detroit Kittens. The downtrodden Lions visit Colorado this week to play the Denver Broncos in old Mile High Stadium. Oddsmakers opened the Lions/Broncos total at 43.5, but the line was quickly bet down to 42.
The Green Bay Packers host the Chicago Bears in a fierce divisional tryst on Sunday Night Football. Oddsmakers anticipate a lo-fi scoring affair, with Aaron Rodgers nursing a fractured pinky toe against the listless Bears offense. The total opened at 45.5 and attracted a heavy flow of money on the under all week. Bookies in Las Vegas adjusted the Bears/Packers total, but you can find a low of 43 at the Circa Sportsbook.
It’s not surprising to see bad teams with lackluster offenses like the Bears and Lions mentioned in this article. But, it’s a bit shocking to see the Green Bay Packers on the best NFL under teams. The high-octane Packers have the third-best offensive DVOA ranking in the NFL, yet they’ve consistently failed to hit the over. The public expects Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to light up every team in the NFL, which is why the masses love to bet Green Bay overs when they should be betting the under.