Riders from Slovenia finished in first and second place in Le Tour this year, so it’s no surprise to see both riders listed as the favorites to win in 2021. Defending champion Tadej Pogacar (Team UAE) is +300 odds to win the 2021 Tour de France, while this year’s runner up, Primoz Roglic (Jumbo-Visma), is the outright favorite at +200 odds.

2021 Tour de France Le Odds Primoz Roglic Tadej Pogacar Egan Bernal Chris Froome
Primoz Roglic (left) and Tadej Pogacar (right) during the final stage of the 2020 Tour de France in Paris. (Image: Christophe Ena/AP)

The global pandemic pushed the start of the 2020 Tour de France to the end of August. Le Tour ran for three weeks in September, and Roglic seized the lead in Stage 9. He held the yellow jersey until the penultimate stage when Pogacar rode to a time trial upset victory in Stage 20.

The big knock against Roglic had always been a decline in the late stages of a Grand Race. It wasn’t a surprise to see him relinquish the lead, though pundits were surprised it hadn’t happened sooner.

  • Primoz Roglic +200
  • Tadej Pogacar +300
  • Remco Evenepoel +400
  • Egan Bernal +900
  • Tom Dumoulin +1100
  • Geraint Thomas +1200
  • Richard Carapaz +2000
  • Thibaut Pinot +2200
  • Chris Froome +2500
  • Emanuel Buchmann +3300
  • Enric Mas +3300
  • Aleksandr Vlasov +3300

Belgium’s Remco Evenepoel, still only 20-years old, is the hot young rider on the Grand Tour. He lacks experience, but then again, young guys won the yellow jersey for the past two years.

“It’s now a young man’s sport,” said American cyclist George Hincapie, who competed in the 1990s and early 2000s. “In my day, it was men in their 30s or maybe their late 20s dominating the Tour de France. But the young guns today, like Pogacar and Bernal, are in peak form before they even reach 23.”

Pogacar was one day shy of his 22nd birthday when he won this year. Egan Bernal was just 22 when he won in 2019.

Past Winners and France Finally?

Bernal, the 2019 Tour de France winner, dropped out of the 2020 Le Tour after a back injury. The young Colombian will look to bounce back for the Ineos Grenadiers in 2021. Bernal offers up good value at +900 odds to win his second yellow jersey at the Tour de France.

Geraint Thomas, the 2018 Tour de France champion, is also a member of Ineos and is +1200 odds to win another yellow jersey.

Four-time Le Tour winner Chris Froome recently ended his contract with Ineos and joined Israel’s Start-Up Nation. Froome, on a mission to join the legends of cycling with a fifth yellow jersey, can be backed at +2500 odds to win the 2021 Tour de France.

Bernard Hinault, aka the Badger, won the Tour de France five times. He last won Le Tour in 1985, which also marked the last time a rider from France won the champion’s yellow jersey. Will a French rider snap the 36-year streak? The pressure is on Thibaut Pinot at +2200 odds as the highest-ranking Frenchman on the Tour de France futures board.

The high-flying Julian Alaphilippe is one of the long shots at +5000 odds. Alaphilippe led the 2020 Tour de France in the first week, but failed to maintain his position at the front of the peloton.

2021 Le Tour Long Shots

Spain’s Mikel Landa (Bahrain–McLaren) is a popular favorite, but he’s yet to find success on Le Tour. He’s one of those 50/1 shots along with Adam Yates (Mitchelton–Scott), the top young rider on Le Tour back in 2016.

Steven Kruijswijk (Jumbo-Visma) missed last year’s Le Tour due to injuries, but he finished third at the 2019 Tour de France. He’s finished in the top five in the main Grand Races, but he’s yet to win a major. Could 2021 finally be the golden year for the Dutchman?

  • Rohan Dennis +4000
  • Steven Kruijswijk +4000
  • Simon Yates +4000
  • Julian Alaphilippe +5000
  • Tao Geoghegan Hart +5000
  • Mikel Landa +5000
  • Pavel Sivakov +5000
  • Adam Yates +5000
  • Joao Almeida +5000
  • Miguel Angel Lopez +5000
  • Nairo Quintana +6600
  • Hugh Carthy +8000
  • Jakob Fuglsang +8000
  • Wilco Kelderman +8000
  • Sepp Kuss +8000
  • Vincenzo Nibali +1000
  • Wout Van Aert +1000

Sepp Kuss, aka the Durango Kid, is the lone American on the futures board. Kuss was a domestic for Jumbo-Visma at the 2020 Tour de France, where he finished in 15th place. He also posted a top-16 finish at Vuelta a Espana. Kuss, who grew up in Colorado, could pull off a stage win in the mountains, but he’s not the big dog at Jumbo-Visma, which means he’s a super long shot at +8000 to win Le Tour in 2021.

Sprinter Wout Van Aert (Jumbo-Visma) won multiple stages on the 2020 Tour de France, where he finished 20th overall. However, he lacks the climbing power to win in the Alps.

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