With the odds on Tour Championship favorites Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm so low as to provide negligible returns, prop bets might be a better option for gamblers looking to wager on the season-ending event. There are several Tour Championship prop bets at this week’s event at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta worth consideration.
Most of the props pay far better than the +188 sportsbooks are offering on Johnson to win, or the +275 that Rahm is fetching. In some cases, they might even provide a more sound wagering strategy.
As usual, sportsbooks outside the United States are providing the more exotic prop bets. Facilities such as the Westgate in Las Vegas are only presenting tournament matchups. DraftKings, however, has side wagers on whether a double eagle will be made, what the winner will make on the final hole (eagle, birdie, par, or bogey), and who the top European player will be.
Here’s an overview of some of the Tour Championship prop bets that gamblers should look at, and others that might be wiser to pass on.
Prop Bets to Consider
First Round Leader
The first bet, fittingly enough, is who will lead the Tour Championship at the end of the first round of play. Bovada is offering -150 on Johnson, +250 on Rahm, and +550 on Justin Thomas
While Johnson is the favorite to be the leader after the first round, there are several golfers with long odds in the 30-man field that are smarter choices. East Lake Golf Club is going to play much easier than last week’s BMW Championship. That will let more players into this prop bet.
We believe passing on Johnson is wise. Look instead at Harris English, who is at +8000 or Xander Schauffele at +10000. Both can go low and are fast starters.
Matsuyama Top Asian Player, Johnson Top American (+350)
One part of this Tour Championship prop bet offered by BetMGM is pretty safe. Japan’s Hideki Matsuyama and South Korea’s Sung-Jae Im are the only two Asians in the field. The tricky part comes with the American part of this wager.
Johnson is the favorite of the Americans at +190, with the next highest American being Justin Thomas at +550. More than half the field is comprised of American golfers, but there are only a handful who will probably challenge Johnson.
Johnson has been playing outstanding golf. He won the Northern Trust, the first event in the FedEx Playoffs, and lost in a playoff to Jon Rahm last week at the BMW Championship.
If you have faith in Johnson, this bet should be a no-brainer.
Prop Bets to Avoid
Will There Be a Playoff?
This is a bet that always attracts a fair amount of money, but it’s one Tour Championship prop that should be avoided. There have been three playoffs in 20 years, with the most recent one in 2016.
The reason this bet is a poor choice is the odds. The no is at -1000 at BetOnline, so there is no logic in taking the favorite. The yes has odds at +600, so the value is minimal.
Winner’s Final Hole Score
The 18th hole at East Lake is a 551-yard par 5, which is definitely possible to make eagle on, but unless you have extra money lying around, this is a wager best left not taken.