It is hard to wrap my head around the fact that Tiger Woods is a long shot to win the BMW Championship. Woods is a 40/1 pick at BetMGM, some of the longest odds he’s had this year.

Tiger Woods BMW Championship
Tiger Woods needs a top-5 finish or better at the BMW Championship if he’s going to get into the top 30 and qualify for next week’s Tour Championship. (Image: Getty)

I’m still not certain Woods is in a position to win, but I do think he’ll finish well this week at the BMW Championship. So with this week’s One Bet, $100, I am taking Woods to place in the top 10 at 7/2 at DraftKings.

The last golf bet I made was a similar wager on a veteran. I took Charles Howell III to finish in the top 10 at the Wyndham Championship. The 41-year-old failed to even make the cut, and my dismal record this season continued.

One Bet, $100

This Week’s Pick   Last Result Season Total
Tiger Woods Top 10 Lost: Charles Howell 1-12, -$880

I have a little more faith in Woods, but to be honest, this is a bet I’m making with my heart instead of my head, and that can lead to disastrous results. I do believe, however, the former No. 1 golfer can regain some form and finish high on the board at Olympia Fields.

Woods Needs Strong Finish to Advance

Woods is a motivated golfer. He needs to finish fifth or better if he’s going to play in the Tour Championship. The top 30 get into East Lake next week, and Woods goes into the BMW Championship at 57th. He told reporters on Wednesday he knows what he has to do this week.

“I have to play well, I have to earn my way back to East Lake,” Woods said. “I haven’t done so yet, and I need a big week this week in order to advance. If I don’t, then I go home. This is a big week for me. I’m looking forward to getting out there and playing and competing.”

Woods has one advantage over his competitors — he played Olympia Fields in the 2003 US Open, though he said it does look different today than it did 17 years ago.

“This golf course is set up more like a US Open than it is a regular Tour event,” Woods said. “But this is the playoffs. It’s supposed to be hard. Pars will be at a premium, putting the ball in the fairway and trying to keep the ball in the correct spots. The greens are quick, hard, and firm for now. The weather is supposed to be really hot the next three days, and maybe breaking Friday night. But until then this is going to be a very difficult golf course.”

Why Woods Will Finish in the Top 10

Woods might have given an indication of how he’ll play at the BMW Championship when he shot a 66 in the final round of The Northern Trust last Sunday. He made birdies on his first four holes, and there were definitely flashes of the old Tiger.

This week won’t be a birdie-fest either, which should help Woods. Olympia Fields is going to play more like a major championship course, and if Woods can grind for four days, he should be at the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.