Dustin Johnson is one of the top Americans playing in the WGC-Mexico Championship this week at Club de Golf Chapultepec in Mexico City. Tiger Woods, Brooks Koepka, and Patrick Cantlay decided to skip it.

Dustin Johnson WGC-Mexico Championship
Dustin Johnson has won the WGC-Mexico Championship two of the three years it has been at Club de Golf Chapultepec, and should be the top American finisher this week. (Image: USA Today Sports)

With those defections, and Johnson being the defending champion, I am taking Johnson as the top American in this week’s One Bet, $100.

Bovada is offering the prop bet and Johnson is the favorite at +325. Justin Thomas is next at +500. Webb Simpson is next at +750. In prop bets like this dead heat rules apply, meaning that if Johnson ties with another American for the best score, half of the bet is won.

At this point any return would be welcome. After two weeks of losses on what I thought were pretty solid selections, I am lacking confidence in picking a bet. Last week I had Bubba Watson to win a group of four at the Genesis Invitational. Watson was returning 3/1, and with his history at Riviera Country Club I felt pretty good about the wager. Watson, however, didn’t even make the cut, and my bet was done before the weekend.

Johnson King of WGC-Mexico Championship

Johnson has ruled the WGC-Mexico Championship. In the three years it has been at Club de Golf Chapultepec, Johnson has won the event twice, and finished tied for seventh.

Last year Johnson won the event by five strokes over Rory McIlroy, who is the 6/1 favorite to win this year. In 2017, Johnson won by a stroke over Tommy Fleetwood. In 2018, he shot 12-under, but finished four behind Phil Mickelson.

Johnson obviously likes this golf course. He has shot a cumulative 47-under par in 12 rounds.

The biggest advantage for Johnson is his length. With the golf course at 7,400 feet, the altitude allows bombers like Johnson to take advantage of the par 5s, as well as have shorter clubs in on the longer par 4s.

It might be his putting, however, that will be his greatest strength this week. Johnson ranks fourth in putts per round at 27.83, and is first in putts from three feet. He also is in the top 10 in four other putting categories, including average distance of putts made.

Strong Start to Season for Johnson

Johnson has played in three events in 2020, finishing in the top 10 in two of them. At the Tournament of Champions in January, Johnson finished tied for seventh. At last week’s Genesis Invitational, he finished 10th.

When the year began Johnson was enthusiastic about the season, telling reporters in January before the start of the Tournament of Champions his game was strong.

“Game is in good form, so I’m excited about this year,” Johnson said. “I’m healthy. My knee feels good. No issues there. So I’m looking forward to this year and hopefully getting back to the form I was in a couple years ago.”

Why Johnson will be Top American

The two possible threats to Johnson being the top American at the WGC-Mexico Championship are Thomas and Simpson. Both of those golfers have red flags, however. Thomas missed the cut last week at the Genesis, where he hit just five greens in regulation. He also missed the cut at the Sony Open.

Simpson has played well, but hasn’t played that much. He did win the Waste Management Phoenix Open, but that was three weeks ago, and he hasn’t teed it up since.

With the combination of driving the ball far and putting well, Johnson should be able to challenge for the third title here. At the very least, he should be the top American.

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