One Bet, $100 is putting our money on Green Bay to cover 7.5 points against the Denver Broncos. There are several reasons why I believe the Packers will get their third consecutive victory.
It has been a rough two weeks for my NFL prognostication. I got crushed by the Detroit Lions giving up 18 points in the fourth quarter and failing to cover against Arizona. Then last week, Houston couldn’t find enough offense to cover against a Jacksonville team without starting quarterback Nick Foles.
One Bet, $100
This Week’s Pick Last Week’s Result Season Total
Green Bay -8.5 Lost Houston 0-2, Down $200
I have exactly as many wins as the Miami Dolphins. Even though I am laying nearly eight points, I have faith the Packers can cover the number at home.
Denver Broncos Defensive Struggles
It seems unfathomable that Denver’s Von Miller and Bradley Chubb have no sacks through two games. The two are the soul of the Denver Broncos’ defense, and have been quiet for eight quarters of football. Green Bay coach Matt LaFleur told reporters that he doesn’t expect that to last.
“Those are two of the premier rushers in the National Football League, so I don’t put a whole lot of stock in the fact that they don’t have any sacks right now,” LaFleur said. “I know that they are a hungry football team, and I’m sure those two in particular are going to be ready to get after it this weekend.”
Even if the two get on track, it won’t be the first game Green Bay’s offensive line has had to deal with two quality pass rushers. In the team’s opener, the Packers had to contend with Khalil Mack and Leonard Floyd of Chicago. Last week it was Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen of the Vikings. The O-line passed both of those tests, and should be able to have similar success against Miller and Chubb.
Besides the dual-attack of running back Aaron Jones, and quarterback Aaron Rodger will keep the Denver Broncos off balance. The defense is fourth in pass defense, but 23rd against the run. If Jones can open up the passing game, Rodgers will have time to find receivers.
Denver Broncos Offense Mistake Prone
Quarterback Joe Flacco has proven one constant in his career. If he is hurried he makes mistakes, and Green Bay’s defense has a knack for rushing quarterbacks. The Broncos are 15th in passing, and Flacco 13th in passing.
The Broncos offensive line is the real concern. They have allowed four sacks and 25 total pressures according to Pro Football Focus. Tack on 12 blocking penalties, and the Packers could feast on Flacco.
Flacco told reporters the team will have to get over the heartbreaking loss last week, and focus on winning in Green Bay.
“(We have to) work, work hard, have a positive attitude,” Flacco said. “If I walk into the building with my head hanging, down low, they’re going to feel like they can feel sorry themselves, too.”
Why Green Bay will Cover Against Denver Broncos
The real question is not whether Green Bay will win, it’s whether they will cover the 8.5 points they are giving the Denver Broncos. There is no doubt Denver will be motivated, but they are facing a Packers team that is only getting stronger.
Plus they have to pull off the upset at Lambeau Field. They have never won there in six times, compiling a record of 0-5-1.
The Packers should take advantage of a weak offensive line, and hurry Flacco into some critical mistakes. Rodgers won’t be as messy, and should guide Green Bay to its third win of the season, and cover the spread.