Of the three Thanksgiving games, the one that should be the most entertaining is Bill-Cowboys. I also think it is the one that has the most potential from a betting standpoint.

Bills-Cowboys
Buffalo has the No. 3 defense in the NFL, and it should be an advantage in the Bills-Cowboy game on Thanksgiving. (Image: USA Today Sports)

So with this holiday special of One Bet, $100, I am taking Buffalo on the moneyline. The Bills, who are 6.5-point underdogs, are getting +245 against the Cowboys straight up, and it is too tempting to pass up, especially when I believe the Bills should be favored in this game.

One Bet, $100

This Week’s Pick                  Last Week’s Result            Season Total

Buffalo +245 Moneyline        Lost Atlanta                         7-5, Up $160

Of course last week I thought Atlanta would crush Tampa Bay, and watched in horror as the Falcons’ defense made quarterback Jameis Winston look like Johnny Unitas. They were 3.5-point favorites and lost, 35-22.

The Bills-Cowboy game feels like a better bet to me. The reason for this inclination to back Buffalo is I believe Dallas is a fraud. Yes, they have a winning record, but who have they beaten? Not many outside of the NFC East. They are 6-5, but just two of those wins came outside of their division. One of those victories was to the lowly Dolphins, who at the time were winless. The other was to the Detroit Lions, another team with a losing record.

Similar Resumes for Bills-Cowboys

Buffalo hasn’t exactly played a lot of strong teams, either. The competition the Bills and Cowboys have faced has been pretty much the same. The Bills, 8-3, have beaten no teams with a winning record. Part of that is they play in the AFC East, where they get the lowly New York Jets and Miami Dolphins twice a year.

But their non-divisional schedule has been soft. They have victories against Washington, Cincinnati, Denver and the New York Giants.

The difference between the Bills and Cowboys are the losses each team has suffered. The Bills have lost to New England, Philadelphia and Cleveland. The only embarrassing loss of the three was the blowout to the Eagles at home.

Dallas, however, has a couple of head scratchers in the loss column. The most glaring one is the 24-22 loss to the New York Jets.

Distractions Matter

Dallas owner Jerry Jones has not been happy with the team’s performance as of late, and has hinted that a coaching change is a possibility. Jason Garrett has been with the organization since 2010, and his contract is up at the end of the year. The Bills-Cowboys game might be a defining moment for Garrett if Dallas was to lose.

Though everyone would deny it, the remarks by Jones are polarizing. When the owner talks to the media and says he didn’t think, “there’s a game where a coaching staff couldn’t do better,” players start wondering if they are getting a new coach soon.

Tight end Jason Whitten came out this week and publicly backed Jones, telling the media he agreed with the owner.

“He (Jones) wants to win, he expects to win,” Whitten said. “He feels like he’s put a great team together, which he has, and we haven’t played to our expectations of where we should be. That’s completely fair. I think it’s just the raw emotion of it all. He’s been around a lot of great football and knows what he wants it to look like.”

Why Buffalo Will Win

The intangibles favor Buffalo in the Bills-Cowboys game, but so does one on the field factor. The Bills have the third best defense in the league. New England, which is No. 1 in defense, limited Dallas, who has the No. 1 offense, to just nine points. The Bills should do the same on Thanksgiving.

Also Dallas is No. 15 against the run, and should have trouble stopping the tandem of Frank Gore and Devin Singletary.

Buffalo should easily cover the 6.5 points they are getting, but I am swinging for the fences and taking them to pull off the upset on the road.

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