Over totals were heating up with gamblers in Week 7 betting, despite colder weather and sportsbooks adjusting lines. That didn’t deter bettors from hammering the over on Sunday. The Thursday game, and every Sunday contest at William Hill, saw the majority of tickets written backing the over.

Kansas City Denver NFL Week 7 betting recap
The Kansas City-Denver game was expected to be a low-scoring affair because of snow and cold temperatures, but it was one of the few games in NFL Week 7 that didn’t stay under the total. (Image: Getty)

In the first four weeks of the NFL season, betting the over was the play. The over had a winning record during that period, highlighted by Week 2 when the over was 11-5.

Now, however, the trend has changed to the under. Through the past three weeks, the under totals have won, including in Week 7 when the under went 7-6.


2020 NFL Over/Under Record

  • Week 1: 10-6
  • Week 2: 11-5
  • Week 3: 9-7
  • Week 4: 7-6-2
  • Week 5: 7-8
  • Week 6: 4-10
  • Week 7: 6-7*

* Monday night game not included


Backing Over Not a Smart Bet

Despite the under trending in recent weeks, bettors have been consistently backing the over, and have been paying the price. While the public has been backing the over, it appears the sharps have been leaning the other way. The percentage of money on the over/under favored the under in seven of the 13 Week 7 games.

NFL Week 7 Betting Over/Under

Over/Under Line % Tickets Written Total Points/Result
NY Giants-Philadelphia 44.5 Over 67% 43 Under
Cleveland-Cincinnati 51 Over 79% 71 Over
Dallas-Washington 45 Over 60% 28 Under
Detroit-Atlanta 55.5 Over 75% 45 Under
Carolina-New Orleans 50.5 Over 76% 51 Over
Buffalo-NY Jets 46 Over 53% 28 Under
Green Bay-Houston 56 Over 61% 55 Under
Pittsburgh-Tennessee 52 Over 66% 51 Under
Tampa Bay-Las Vegas 51.5 Over 80% 65 Over
San Francisco-New England 45 Over 67% 39 Under
Kansas City-Denver 44.5 Over 71% 59 Over
Jacksonville-LA Chargers 49 Over 57% 68 Over
Seattle-Arizona 55 Over 64% 71 Over

While the under was in the majority again, one game the public got right was the matchup between Kansas City and Denver. While the amateurs liked the over, the sharps were heavy on the other side, with 77% of the money on the under. The thinking was the over total would be affected by temperatures in the teens at Empower Field at Mile High. With snow also predicted, the over dropped from 50 to 44.5 by game time. Both teams, however, showed the elements mattered little. The Chiefs defeated the Broncos 43-16, clearing the over by more than two touchdowns.

Aaron Rodgers Bounces Back After Loss

One trend that gamblers apparently picked up on was Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers bouncing back against the spread after a loss. Rodgers and the Packers were embarrassed by Tampa Bay last week, 38-10, and failed to cover the spread. The Packers were a 2.5-point favorite against the Buccaneers, and lost outright.

In games the week after a loss against the spread, Rodgers is 37-12-1 ATS. The Packers were three-point picks on Sunday against Houston, and blew the Texans out of the building 35-20.

Most of the sportsbooks needed Houston to win since the majority of the money was on the Packers. At several facilities, the figure was 80% or more on Green Bay.

Dumb Bet of the Week

An unidentified gambler walked into the Westgate’s SuperBook and put down $100 on the New York Jets at 10,000 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. The Jets are the NFL’s only winless team.

One win for the LOL Jets happened on Sunday. They finally covered, breaking an 0-6 mark. One bettor had so little faith in the Jets, he put $5,000 on two alternate point spreads of 29 and 30 points backing the Bills. He lost both.

Bad Beat of the Week

The Cleveland Browns were a 3.5-point favorite over the Cincinnati Bengals and looked like they would cover when quarterback Baker Mayfield threw a 24-yard touchdown pass to Donovan Peoples-Jones with 11 seconds remaining to make the score 37-34. The kicker, Cody Parkey, missed the PAT to burn Cleveland ticket holders.

One gambler at a BetMGM sportsbook lost $120,000 when Parkey missed the PAT.

Stat of the Week

The Dallas Cowboys are the only NFL team still winless against the spread this season, moving to 0-7 ATS. They are the first team since the 2006 Miami Dolphins to start the season 0-7 ATS. The others are the 1988 Colts, 1991 Colts and Bengals, 1997 Packers and Bengals, 1998 Redskins, 2003 Raiders, and the 2006 Dolphins.

Comments

  1. Aw, this was a very good post. Taking a few minutes and actual effort to generate a good article… but what can I say… I put things off a whole lot and don’t manage to get anything done.

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