NFL prop bettors have to know their quarterbacks. There are four categories of QB-related bets — more than any other position — and a limited field of potential superstars capable of being tops for most passing yards, most touchdowns, highest passer rating, and, undesirably, most interceptions.
Bovada, BetOnline, and Ladbrokes were all taking action on either one or more of those bets. We take a look at the four categories, and give our take on who might rewarded bettors at the end of the regular season.
Patrick Mahomes Sailing Away
Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes blew away the competition last year with 50 touchdown passes. The next highest was Indianapolis’ Andrew Luck with 39. That is the reason Mahomes is the favorite from Bovada, BetOnline, and Ladbrokes.
Most Touchdown Passes
Player Team 2018 TDs Bovada BetOnline Labrokes
Patrick Mahomes Chiefs 50 7/2 3/1 5/2
Andrew Luck Colts 38 11/2 6/1 5/1
Matt Ryan Falcons 35 8/1 6/1 5/1
Aaron Rodgers Packers 25 9/1 6/1 6/1
Baker Mayfield Browns 27 14/1 12/1 12/1
Drew Brees Saints 32 20/1 12/1 11/1
Carson Wentz Eagles 21 18/1 14/1 11/1
The Chiefs second-year signal caller will most likely have a letdown from his phenomenal amount of touchdown passes, but even if he drops 20 percent, he would still have more than any other QB did last season. It is doubtful the talented passer will have that big of a letdown.
The only other question is can anyone keep up with him? Andrew Luck of Indianapolis and Atlanta’s Matt Ryan would seem the most likely. Both return from strong years, and have weapons that should help boost their numbers.
One darkhorse candidate would seem to be Cleveland’s Baker Mayfield. He begins his second year in the league, and has a new receiver to target in Odell Beckham Jr. At 14/1 with Bovada, he seems awfully tempting.
Big Ben Prone To Picks
Who will throw the most interceptions seems to be a bit wide open, since the leader last season, isn’t expected to duplicate his dubious mark. Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger led the league in 2018 with 16 picks, and didn’t apologize last year for the high number of mistakes.
“I’m a quarterback that is going to go out and sling it,” Roethlisberger said last November. “I’m not going to worry about interceptions. I hate doing them, they bother me. But I’m going to go out and play my game and try and help us win football games. Basketball right, you miss threes. Do they stop shooting? No, because you trust yourself.”
Player Team 2018 INTs Bovada Ladbrokes
B. Roethlisberger Steelers 16 8/1 8/1
Jameis Winston Bucs 14 15/2 8/1
Kyler Murray Cardinals N/A 10/1 8/1
Sam Darnold Jets 15 11/1 7/1
Josh Allen Bills 12 12/1 12/1
Cam Newton Panthers 13 14/1 12/1
Phillip Rivers Chargers 12 14/1 9/1
Though Roethlisberger is one of the favorites at Ladbrokes to throw the most interceptions, he should benefit from a more stable atmosphere. Gone is Antonio Brown, and his demands to have the ball thrown his way no matter how many defenders were covering him.
One longshot to seriously look at is Buffalo’s Josh Allen and Miami’s Ryan Fitzpatrick. Allen had 12 picks in 12 games, while Fitzpatrick threw 12 in eight games. Allen and Fitzpatrick both are at 12/1 odds at both Bovada and Ladbrokes.
Consistency Makes Drew Brees Favorite
New Orleans QB Drew Brees led passer rating over Mahomes last year, and oddsmakers at BetOnline and Ladbrokes believe he will win this stat again. Brees finished 2018 with a passer rating of 115.7, which factors passing attempts, completions, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions. Mahomes was at 113.8.
Highest Passer Rating
Player Team 2018 Rating BetOnline Ladbrokes
Drew Brees Saints 115 5/2 12/5
Patrick Mohomes Chiefs 113.8 3/1 11/4
Aaron Rodgers Packers 97.6 4/1 4/1
Matt Ryan Falcons 108.1 9/2 4/1
Russell Wilson Seahawks 110.9 6/1 6/1
Deshaun Watson Texans 103.1 12/1 12/1
Phillip Rivers Chargers 105.5 12/1 12/1
At 39-years-old, Brees has no reason to change how he approaches the position. He is an efficient, intelligent quarterback, who doesn’t make a lot of mistakes. He will be difficult to beat here, and with odds a little better than 2/1, it is a decent bet.
If looking for a longshot though, Carson Wentz might be worth a shot. The Eagles QB got dinged last year for only playing in 11 games, but still managed a rating of 102.2. If he stays healthy, at 16/1, he could produce a nice payout.
Gunslinger Matt Ryan Shooting to Top
This category is for those that like to chuck it early and often. Atlanta’s Ryan and Kansas City’s Mahomes definitely meet that criteria. Pittsburgh’s Roethlisberger was the leader last year, but for some reason is the third pick behind those two. Mahomes is 9/2, and Ryan at 5/1, while Roethlisberger is grouped with Rodgers and Luck at 8/1.
Most Passing Yards
Player Team 2018 Yds BetOnline Bovada Ladbrokes
Patrick Mahomes Chiefs 5,097 9/2 9/2 7/2
Matt Ryan Falcons 4,924 5/1 5/1 7/2
Aaron Rodgers Packers 4,442 8/1 8/1 9/1
B, Roethlisberger Steelers 5,129 8/1 8/1 9/1
Andrew Luck Colts 4,593 8/1 8/1 7/1
Jameis Winston Bucs 2,992 10/1 10/1 20/1
Baker Mayfield Browns 3,725 14/1 14/1 9/1
Ryan has always had a good amount of passing yards, but it may go up with new offensive coordinator, Dirk Koetter. It is the second time he has worked with Ryan, having been at that job from 2012-2014. In those three seasons, Ryan attempted the most passes in his career.