While much was made of the season debut of Tiger Woods at the Farmers Insurance Open last week, the attention by bettors should have been on Justin Rose. Woods opened the event at 16/1, but had several factors going against him, while in hindsight, Rose should have been the favorite to win at Torrey Pines, which he did on Sunday.
The No. 1 player in the Official World Golf Rankings, Rose entered last week’s tournament at 14/1, along with Rory McIlroy and Jason Day. The top pick by oddsmakers was Jon Rahm a 10/1.
Rahm was installed as the favorite because he was the 2016 champion, but last year finished tied for 29th. He did finish tied for eighth at the Tournament of Champions, and tied for sixth at the Desert Classic the week before the Farmers.
Rose, however, had two previous top 10s at Torrey Pines in the last two years, and after the first round was one behind Rahm. When the odds were updated, Rose was at 9/2.
That would be the last line of value for Rose. When he finished his second round with a three-shot lead he went to 4/5. After the third round he maintained that lead and the adjusted odds were 2/5.
Props for Tiger
While Woods didn’t sniff the lead in any of the rounds of the Farmers, he did pay off on a couple of prop bets. The first was whether he would make the cut. The yes was -170 and the no was +140. He made it by two strokes.
The other bet that paid was the highest score Woods would record on any hole. The over/under was 6.5, with the over at -130 and the under even money. He hit the under, his highest score was a double-bogey 6 on the 18th in the second round.
He didn’t cash for bettors on whether he would finish in the top 5, settling for a tie for 20th, but Woods was satisfied with his first tour event of the season.
“If you saw where I was Thursday and look at where I am at now, Sunday, I got a little bit better,” Woods said. “I drove the ball better, hit my irons a little bit cleaner. Again, I hit good putts, some didn’t go in, some did.”
Master Odds Adjust
After his performance at Torrey Pines, Rose now favorite at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook to win the Masters. He was 16/1 when the odds were posted, but has now moved to 12/1.
Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson, Woods, McIlroy, and Brooks Koepka. Woods was the favorite back in September at 9/1 after winning the Tour Championship, but has dropped after a tie for 20th at the Farmers.
At the Waste Management Phoenix Open, Rahm is again the early favorite to win at 7/1. In three previous appearances, he has finished tied for 11th, 16th and fifth.
Justin Thomas is at 9/1. Two-time winner Hideki Matsuyama is at 12/1.
Pick of the Week
Matsuyama loves the Waste Management, winning in 2016 and 2017. His other two appearances he finished tied for second and fourth. He had to withdraw last year with a wrist injury, but he is fully healthy, finishing tied for third last week at the Farmers.