NBA Top Shot released two new packs over the past week, including a rare All-Star Game drop that included moments from all 20 players in the exhibition contest. But with demand as high as ever, only a small percentage of collectors actually snagged one of these products.

NBA Top Shot
A LeBron James dunk has emerged as the priciest moment in the NBA Top Shot 2021 All-Star Game set, with the #1 version of the card selling for $42,000. (Image: NBA Top Shot)

NBA Top Shot initially announced the drop of 36,378 2021 All-Star Game packs for Thursday, March 18.

Demand for Top Shot moments continues to soar

In a move that Top Shot fans have become accustomed to, the site pushed back the drop several times for various technical reasons. The packs finally dropped on Friday, March 19, with about 230,000 collectors lining up for the chance to spend $229 in order to get seven moments, including one All-Star Game highlight.

I was among the many people attempting to grab one of these packs, and I came close: my number in the queue was just over 40,000. As some people inevitably fail to buy a pack – either because they didn’t realize the cost, technical issues, or for other reasons – I held out hope that I might barely qualify to grab one. Unfortunately, I came up about 2,500 places short.

Those who did purchase a pack once again guaranteed themselves a profit, though not with the astronomical prices that some sets have produced in recent weeks. You can buy the lowest-priced All-Star Game moment – a Mike Conley 3-pointer – for as little as $200 for higher serial numbers among the 2,021 copies in existence as of Tuesday afternoon. Throw in six common Base Set moments, and a very poor pack would just barely cover the $229 cost in terms of moment value.

That said, the average pack still returned far above that value, and some moments are worth far more. The cheapest LeBron James dunks are going for about $2,700, with the #1 selling for $42,000 on Tuesday. There’s still plenty of money out there for investors who win the NBA Top Shot lottery.

Buyers find value in Cool Cats packs

On Monday, March 22, Top Shot released its third Cool Cats pack, a $14 common product that included four base set moments and a Cool Cats moment featuring one of five players. With 67,500 packs available, more collectors went home happy. But demand was up as well, with more than 300,000 people joining the queue in an attempt to get a pack. This time, I didn’t even get close.

Top Shot minted 15,000 of each Cool Cats moment, moderating their value somewhat. But whether you pulled a Goran Dragic layup ($72), or a Kristaps Porzingis 3-pointer ($85), collectors made a handsome profit by opening these packs.

The lesson? It’s worth lining up to get any NBA Top Shot product you can, and likely will be for the near future. But for most releases, you should go in feeling like you’re lucky if you get something – not disappointed when you end up at the back of the queue without a chance.

On a final note, if you’re collecting NBA Top Shot moments, I’d like to point out a useful site: rayvin.io. The site offers a number of benefits, including a portfolio monitor that keeps track of the estimated total value of your collection and automated notifications of pack drops. You can also pay for added features that watch for fluctuations in pricing and help you keep a better eye on the marketplace. I imagine we’ll see more of these third-party tools popping up in the months to come.

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