The fifth and final Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool closed Sunday afternoon with Essential Quality the 4/1 favorite to win the May 1 Run for the Roses.
Unbeaten Essential Quality makes his final Derby tune-up in Saturday’s Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes during Keeneland’s opening weekend. He opened the weekend as the 3/1 favorite when KDFW betting opened Friday afternoon.
Right behind him were Bob Baffert’s Concert Tour and “All Other 3-Year-Olds,” aka “The Field.” Both closed at 5/1. Like Essential Quality, who is 4-for-4, Concert Tour is unbeaten after wins in two Grade 2s: the San Vicente and the Rebel Stakes. He’s the expected favorite for the April 10 Grade 1 Arkansas Derby.
Concert Tour opened at 9/2 in the final KDFW pool.
Known Agenda plays his part without taking part
While the two individual favorites’ odds didn’t fluctuate too much, “All Others” opened the weekend at 20/1. What likely knocked it down to 5/1 was money coming in on Known Agenda after his 2 ¾-length victory in the Florida Derby. The Todd Pletcher-trained Known Agenda wasn’t one of the 23 individual horses listed in the KDFW’s final pool, so he goes into the “All Others” pool.
Another big move came from Rock Your World. Trainer John Sadler’s only entry went from 50/1 to 31/1. He’s expected to run against Baffert’s Medina Spirit in next Saturday’s Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby.
Most of the odds moves were increases, with many of those being just a few points difference. But two horses coming off disappointing performances in the same race illustrated the oft-capricious nature of Derby futures betting.
KDFW makes strange race-fellows
Those involved Greatest Honour and Spielberg. The 4/5 Florida Derby favorite, Greatest Honour’s three-race winning streak ended with his third in his final Derby prep. He opened the weekend as the KDFW’s 4/1 second-favorite. He closed it at 9/1.
As for Spielberg, the inconsistent Baffert colt finished a non-threatening seventh in the Florida Derby. He opened the weekend as one of five 50/1 longshots. Despite that, enough money came in on him to drop him to 46/1.
2021 Kentucky Derby Future Wager-Final Pool Odds
|Trainer||Odds-$2 Win Pays|
|Essential Quality||Brad Cox||4/1-$10.20|
|“All Other 3-Year-Olds”||—||5/1-$12.80|
|Concert Tour||Bob Baffert||5/1-$13|
|Greatest Honour||Shug McGaughey||9/1-$20.80|
|Hot Rod Charlie||Doug O’Neill||12/1-$26.20|
|Medina Spirit||Bob Baffert||13/1-$28.80|
|Highly Motivated||Chad Brown||25/1-$53.80|
|Midnight Bourbon||Steve Asmussen||27/1-$56.80|
|Risk Taking||Chad Brown||30/1-$62.80|
|Rock Your World||John Sadler||31/1-$65|
|Caddo River||Brad Cox||33/1-$69.40|
|Collaborate||Saffie Joseph Jr.||36/1-$74.40|
|Crowded Trade||Chad Brown||38/1-$78.40|
|Dream Shake||Peter Eurton||45/1-92|
|O Besos||Greg Foley||50/1-$102.20|
|Hidden Stash||Vicki Oliver||53/1-$109.60|
The longest shot on the board is Hidden Stash, who closed at 53/1.
The KDFW Pool 5 took in $369,695 in total handle, with $242,140 of that going in the win pool and the remaining $127,555 in the exacta pool. The five KDFW pools and the lone Kentucky Oaks Future Wager pool amassed $1,780,403 in total handle.