One day after opening the first domestic Breeders’ Cup Classic futures board, Circa Sports puts Improbable as the favorite to capture the $6 million Breeders’ Cup’s marquee event on Nov. 7 at Keeneland.

Improbable-BC Classic Futures
Irad Ortiz Jr. rode Improbable to his second of three Grade 1 wins at August’s The Whitney. Improbable’s current form makes him the favorite in Circa Sports’ Breeders’ Cup Classic futures betting. (Image: Daily Gazette)

Improbable opened at +380, then moved up slightly to +410. His best odds overseas are 4/1. The Bob Baffert trainee is the hottest older horse in North America, winning three consecutive Grade 1 races. That includes beating stablemate Maximum Security in last month’s Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita Park.

As for Maximum Security, that loss snapped his six-race winning streak. Circa puts him the fourth favorite at +610. You can get him anywhere from 9/2 to 8/1 overseas, according to Oddschecker.

In between those two are the top two 3-year-old colts of 2020, Tiz the Law and Authentic. You can get Belmont Stakes champion and Kentucky Derby runner-up Tiz the Law at +450 at Circa, which opened him at +410. His best price overseas is 9/2.

Authentic Could Present Value Here

Derby champion Authentic, who comes off a nail-biting, runner-up finish to Swiss Skydiver in the Preakness Stakes 10 days ago, is Circa’s third-favorite at +550. That’s far less than the 8/1 odds offered by one of the overseas books.

Speaking of Swiss Skydiver, she’s no better than a tepid maybe to run the Classic. That didn’t dissuade Circa Sports Risk Supervisor Paul Zilm from opening her at 7/1. A day later, she’s +775. One overseas book has Swiss Skydiver at 11/1 – the same odds she carried to her Preakness victory.

“I think there is a good chance Swiss runs in the (Breeders’ Cup) Distaff and as such, I have floated her number up a little,” Zilm told OG News via text. “All bets before the PP (post position) draw are action, so I didn’t want to go too low. If she runs, I could see lowering her a little.”


Circa Sports Breeders Cup Classic Futures

Horse Odds
Improbable +410
Tiz the Law +450
Authentic +550
Maximum Security +610
Tom’s d’Etat +645
Swiss Skydiver +775
Art Collector +1400
Global Campaign +1550
By My Standards +1800
Ghaiyyath +1800
Tacitus +2000
Happy Saver +2000

Tom’s d’Etat at +640 completes Circa’s six-pack of single-digit odds contenders. From there, it jumps to Art Collector at 14/1 and recent Woodward Stakes champion Global Campaign – who is 3-for-4 this year – at +1550. After his well-beaten fourth as the “it” horse in the Preakness, Art Collector may not run the Classic. He’s listed as high as 16/1 overseas.

Rounding out the 11 individual horses Circa lists are By My Standards (+1800), European standout Ghaiyyath (+1800), last year’s Classic runner-up Tacitus (+2000), and recent invitee Happy Saver (+2000).

Ghaiyyath is entered in both the Classic and Breeders’ Cup Turf. He’s listed anywhere from 12/1 to 14/1 in overseas Classic wagering. Conversely, he’s the 2/1 favorite for the Turf. Tacitus, meanwhile, finds himself carrying the same odds as the horse who beat him in last Saturday’s Jockey Club Gold Cup – Happy Saver. That victory punched Happy Saver’s ticket into the Classic.

Future Odds Hold Until Post Position Draw

Zilm said not much early action is in yet, mostly parlays. Once the race is drawn, new odds will go up and action happens when the gates open.

Along with this, Circa repeats its popular “no” bets for all single-digit odds horses. Fade favorite Improbable and you lay -600. Fading Tiz the Law costs you -670, Authentic -890, Maximum Security -1010, and Tom’s d’Etat -1065. Zilm did not put up a “no” bet on Swiss Skydiver because of her uncertain status.

All “no” bets are action before the draw, meaning if you wager “no” money on any horse and they fail to start the race, you win the bet. After the draw, the horse must start and lose for a winning bet.

All the Circa futures are available in Nevada only, or through the book’s mobile app.

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