Sportsbooks released their lines for the first week of the NFL regular season in early May, but it’s tough to get a sense of how a team is going to be before they’ve even signed their draft picks.
Gamblers pour over the odds, trying to get an edge, and now after the first full week of training camp, a clearer picture is beginning to emerge.
Injuries, free agent signings, players who are traded or waived, all will affect the lines. If a fan bets on his team in June, and a significant player gets injured or is out for the season for some other reason, that bet is adversely affected.
The first game of the 2018 NFL season will be on Sept. 6 when the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles host the Atlanta Falcons. The line for the game opened at -4 and has not moved. The over/under, however has. It opened at 47 and has dropped at most sportsbooks to 46.5 — a small but potentially significant change. (Only William Hill has kept it at 47 so far.)
Big Shifts for Rams, Saints
Some lines have moved even further. The New Orleans Saints opened as a 7.5-point favorite against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Then news came in late June that the Bucs starting quarterback Jameis Winston was suspended for that game, and the following two, for violating the league’s personal conduct policy when he allegedly groped a female Uber driver.
Now the Saints are 9.5 favorites, and that might be low. Tampa Bay, whose coach Dirk Koetter is the favorite to be the first coach fired, will have to rely on backup Ryan Fitzpatrick to try and lead the team. Last year, when Winston sat out three games with a shoulder injury, Fitzpatrick went 2-1, his loss coming against the Saints, 30-10.
The Los Angeles Rams, who are billed as a Super Bowl contender, face the Oakland Raiders as the final game of the first week. The game opened as a pick ‘em, but has since been moved to make the Rams a 3-point favorite. Bettors will get a better sense of how the teams will be during the regular season, because they are facing each other Saturday in a preseason contest. Stations Casino has that game a pick ’em.
Finding Early Season Value
One game the sharps seemed to have jumped on is Baltimore hosting the Buffalo Bills. The Ravens opened as a 3-point favorite, but that has quickly gone up to six, and may trend even higher.
The Bills drafted quarterback Josh Allen in the first round, and some questioned the selection. But Allen’s first game as a pro went pretty well. He threw for 9 of 19 for 116 yards and a touchdown. His performance included a pass that traveled 60 yards in the air and even though it was incomplete, it impressed Bills Coach Sean McDermott, and might be a sign of things to come.
“You obviously could feel the energy in the crowd,” McDermott said. “That first pass, I thought it was a great call. It was a good throw, good catch, (it was just) out of bounds.”
Another quarterback who impressed was veteran Andrew Luck of the Indianapolis Colts. He was out all of last year after surgery for a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder. He has resumed his career and played well in the team’s first preseason game.
The Colts will play Cincinnati the first week of the regular season and were a 1.5-point favorite. With Luck’s progression from surgery, the line has moved to three. Again it is another game where the number might move even higher.
