Tom Brady and Bill Belichick will be playing in their eighth-straight AFC Championship title game when the New England Patriots visit freezing Kansas City to take on Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
The Patriots beat the Chiefs 43-40 in a fantastic game on Sunday Night Football in Week 6. The Pats won at home, but the rematch will be held in Kansas City.
The Chiefs are one win away from a Super Bowl berth. They had not been to the Super Bowl in 49 years. The Chiefs appeared in two of the first four Super Bowls, with a victory in Super Bowl IV. The winning trophy at the Super Bowl is named for former Chiefs owner Lamar Hunt.
According to the South Point Casino and Sports Book in Las Vegas, the Kansas City Chiefs are +260 odds to win the Super Bowl. The Patriots are +360 to win the NFL title.
New England Patriots (12-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (13-4)
Kickoff: 3:40pm
Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Point Spread: KC -3
Over/Under: 55.5
Moneyline: KC -165, NE +145
The Chiefs are three-point favorites at home in Arrowhead Stadium, where they went 8-1 this season. The Patriots are 3-5 on the road and went a perfect 9-0 at home this season.
The Patriots crushed Philip Rivers and the LA Chargers in the Divisional Round. Last week, the Chiefs picked off a red-hot Andrew Luck and the Colts to advance to the AFC title game.
QB Battle of the Ages: Brady vs. Mahomes
The young gun versus the grizzled gunslinger is a common trope in the Western genre. In this instance, the 23-year old Patrick Mahomes takes on the 41-year old Tom Brady. If it were up to Brady, he’d play until his 50. Mahomes holds the edge in arm strength and athleticism, but Brady has nearly two decades of NFL experience and five Super Bowl rings. When Brady won his first Super Bowl after the 2001 season, Mahomes was only six years old.
In Week 6, the Patriots beat the Chiefs. Mahomes had a bad first half and threw two interceptions, but he finished the game strong and threw four touchdowns in the second half. He finished with 352 passing yards. Brady threw for 340 yards and a touchdown in the win.
TALE OF THE TAPE
Patrick Mahomes: 50 TD, 12 INT, 5,097 yards, 80.1 QBR
Tom Brady: 29 TD, 11 INT, 4,355 yards, 70.6 QBR
Plus, Brady has no fear of cold weather. In cold weather games under 30 degrees Fahrenheit, Tom Brady is 24-4. If the weather dips below 20 degrees, he’s 5-1. The temperatures were initially projected to reach single digits. The over/under totals plummeted a couple of points on the news. Weather reports have eased up since then and the total has ticked back up.
Who Has a Better Defense?
The Chiefs don’t have much of a defense to brag about because their potent offense is their answer to a shoddy defense. The Chiefs allow 26.3 points per game, which is ranked #24 overall. They are second worst against the pass allowing 273.4 passing yards per game. As bad as that sounds, they are actually #17 in defensive DVOA.
The Patriots have the best defense out of all remaining playoff teams. They allow 20.3 points per game, which is seventh-best in the NFL.
The Pats have a #11-ranked run defense in rushing yards allow, but they are ranked #24 against the pass. The Pats are ranked #14 in overall defensive DVOA.
Bill Belichick is facing one of the most efficient offenses in the history of the NFL. The Chiefs are ranked #5 all-time in offensive DVOA. Belichick is tasked with slowing down Mahomes and company, particularly WR Tyreek Hill destroyed the Patriots in their previous meeting with 142 yards and three touchdowns.
Reid vs. Belichick
Even with his flaws, Andy Reid has done a remarkable job as a head coach. He’s recognized for adapting to the times while morphing the old-school West Coast offense with spread offense techniques. Toss in a few plays from Patrick Mahomes Air Raid days at Texas Tech, and the Chiefs have become an offensive juggernaut.
The Chiefs are the most penalized team in the NFL, while the Patriots are the second-least penalized league.
Belichick is considered the greatest coach of all-time in some circles. He’s tough to beat in the playoffs. However, the Patriots are vulnerable on the road this season. They have a true home-field advantage in Foxboro. The Pats went 3-5 on the road this season with losses against the Lions, Jaguars, Titans, Dolphins, and Steelers. The Pats dropped four road games to non-playoff teams.
The Chiefs are second-best in the NFL at third down conversions at 47.2 percent. The Patriots convert 40.8 percent of their third downs.
On fourth down, the Chiefs are third best with an 80 percent success rate. The Patriots only converted 50 percent of their fourth-down gambles.
Against the Spread
The Chiefs are 10-6-1 ATS this season, while the Patriots are 10-7 ATS. The Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last six games in January. They are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 playoff games.
The Chiefs are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games. In their last 11 playoff appearances, the Chiefs are 2-9 ATS. The Chiefs are only 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games in the postseason.
The over hit in five out of the last seven games for the Chiefs. The over is 6-1 in the last seven playoff games for the Patriots.
