NFL prop bettors have to know their quarterbacks. There are four categories of QB-related bets — more than any other position — and a limited field of potential superstars capable of being tops for most passing yards, most touchdowns, highest passer rating, and, undesirably, most interceptions.
Bovada, BetOnline, and Ladbrokes were all taking action on either one or more of those bets. We take a look at the four categories, and give our take on who might rewarded bettors at the end of the regular season.
Patrick Mahomes Sailing Away
Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes blew away the competition last year with 50 touchdown passes. The next highest was Indianapolis’ Andrew Luck with 39. That is the reason Mahomes is the favorite from Bovada, BetOnline, and Ladbrokes.
Most Touchdown Passes
Player            Team  2018 TDs Bovada  BetOnline  Labrokes
Patrick Mahomes    Chiefs    50     7/2          3/1             5/2
Andrew Luck       Colts     38     11/2     6/1             5/1
Matt Ryan         Falcons   35      8/1     6/1             5/1
Aaron Rodgers     Packers   25      9/1     6/1             6/1
Baker Mayfield     Browns   27      14/1    12/1           12/1
Drew Brees        Saints    32      20/1    12/1           11/1
Carson Wentz      Eagles    21      18/1    14/1           11/1
The Chiefs second-year signal caller will most likely have a letdown from his phenomenal amount of touchdown passes, but even if he drops 20 percent, he would still have more than any other QB did last season. It is doubtful the talented passer will have that big of a letdown.
The only other question is can anyone keep up with him? Andrew Luck of Indianapolis and Atlanta’s Matt Ryan would seem the most likely. Both return from strong years, and have weapons that should help boost their numbers.
One darkhorse candidate would seem to be Cleveland’s Baker Mayfield. He begins his second year in the league, and has a new receiver to target in Odell Beckham Jr. At 14/1 with Bovada, he seems awfully tempting.
Big Ben Prone To Picks
Who will throw the most interceptions seems to be a bit wide open, since the leader last season, isn’t expected to duplicate his dubious mark. Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger led the league in 2018 with 16 picks, and didn’t apologize last year for the high number of mistakes.
“I’m a quarterback that is going to go out and sling it,” Roethlisberger said last November. “I’m not going to worry about interceptions. I hate doing them, they bother me. But I’m going to go out and play my game and try and help us win football games. Basketball right, you miss threes. Do they stop shooting? No, because you trust yourself.”
Most Interceptions
Player          Team     2018 INTs  Bovada  Ladbrokes
B. Roethlisberger  Steelers    16       8/1              8/1
Jameis Winston   Bucs       14      15/2             8/1
Kyler Murray     Cardinals   N/A          10/1             8/1
Sam Darnold     Jets        15      11/1             7/1
Josh Allen       Bills        12      12/1       12/1
Cam Newton     Panthers    13      14/1       12/1
Phillip Rivers     Chargers   12       14/1             9/1
Though Roethlisberger is one of the favorites at Ladbrokes to throw the most interceptions, he should benefit from a more stable atmosphere. Gone is Antonio Brown, and his demands to have the ball thrown his way no matter how many defenders were covering him.
One longshot to seriously look at is Buffalo’s Josh Allen and Miami’s Ryan Fitzpatrick. Allen had 12 picks in 12 games, while Fitzpatrick threw 12 in eight games. Allen and Fitzpatrick both are at 12/1 odds at both Bovada and Ladbrokes.
Consistency Makes Drew Brees Favorite
New Orleans QB Drew Brees led passer rating over Mahomes last year, and oddsmakers at BetOnline and Ladbrokes believe he will win this stat again. Brees finished 2018 with a passer rating of 115.7, which factors passing attempts, completions, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions. Mahomes was at 113.8.
Highest Passer Rating
Player           Team         2018 Rating  BetOnline    Ladbrokes
Drew Brees       Saints      115          5/2        12/5
Patrick Mohomes  Chiefs      113.8        3/1        11/4
Aaron Rodgers    Packers    97.6         4/1         4/1
Matt Ryan        Falcons     108.1        9/2         4/1
Russell Wilson    Seahawks   110.9        6/1         6/1
Deshaun Watson  Texans     103.1        12/1        12/1
Phillip Rivers     Chargers    105.5        12/1        12/1
At 39-years-old, Brees has no reason to change how he approaches the position. He is an efficient, intelligent quarterback, who doesn’t make a lot of mistakes. He will be difficult to beat here, and with odds a little better than 2/1, it is a decent bet.
If looking for a longshot though, Carson Wentz might be worth a shot. The Eagles QB got dinged last year for only playing in 11 games, but still managed a rating of 102.2. If he stays healthy, at 16/1, he could produce a nice payout.
Gunslinger Matt Ryan Shooting to Top
This category is for those that like to chuck it early and often. Atlanta’s Ryan and Kansas City’s Mahomes definitely meet that criteria. Pittsburgh’s Roethlisberger was the leader last year, but for some reason is the third pick behind those two. Mahomes is 9/2, and Ryan at 5/1, while Roethlisberger is grouped with Rodgers and Luck at 8/1.
Most Passing Yards
Player          Team   2018 Yds BetOnline Bovada Ladbrokes
Patrick Mahomes Chiefs   5,097    9/2      9/2     7/2
Matt Ryan       Falcons  4,924    5/1      5/1     7/2
Aaron Rodgers     Packers  4,442    8/1      8/1     9/1
B, Roethlisberger Steelers  5,129    8/1      8/1     9/1
Andrew Luck     Colts    4,593    8/1      8/1     7/1
Jameis Winston    Bucs    2,992     10/1        10/1     20/1
Baker Mayfield    Browns   3,725     14/1     14/1     9/1
Ryan has always had a good amount of passing yards, but it may go up with new offensive coordinator, Dirk Koetter. It is the second time he has worked with Ryan, having been at that job from 2012-2014. In those three seasons, Ryan attempted the most passes in his career.
