Excellent performance. He needs to get the judges on-side, though.

As every red-blooded MMA fan would know, there is a lot of controversy surrounding the Machida/Rua fight that went down on the weekend at UFC 104. Machida retained his belt in a unanimous decision, but many felt the fight should have gone to Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua. Most of the debate has focused on fans of both fighters calling one another various names, so I think I’ll add my own idiocy to the mix.

I completely understand why people think Shogun was robbed, but I also think he brought it on himself. People are saying that he came up with the right plan to defeat Machida, and I both agree and disagree. He had the right idea – you won’t get a knock out, because Machida is too good at defending his head, so you need to get a decision by attacking the legs and body. Utter genius, and it certainly never occurred to me. However, what Shogun didn’t think about, seemingly, was how this strategy would look to the judges.

People love to complain about judges, but they are part of the game, and you need to take what they’ll see into account if you are trying to win by decision. Clearly Machida has a good understanding of this, as he scores points in defining moments that grab attention and color the entire round. Shogun may have landed lots of leg kicks and some good body shots, but Machida was very good at minimizing how effective these looked. This could have made the judges think that Shogun was simply harassing Machida in the earlier rounds. The judges matter if you’re playing for the decision, so when trying to be patient, you really need your hits to stick in the minds of the judges, or else you need a broader game plan.

So, on that note, this is what I think Shogun needs to change to win in the rematch:

1. Make the leg kicks look useful

Clearly, Machida isn’t going to be KO’d by leg kicks, so Shogun needs to make his leg kicking part of a broader plan. I think he intended to make more takedown attempts, but just gave up on them after a few failures. Taking Machida down is one of those things that judges will value, and I think it would be the easiest way to bring about my next point…

2. Cut Machida early

Machida did get cut in the fight, but it wasn’t until late, by which point it couldn’t color the fight. Sure, it’s hard to execute this on purpose. Blood will get noticed by the judges, though, even if it has no actual effect on the abilities of the fighter who got cut. It can even be less effective than leg kicks at stopping the fight, yet blood will still influence decisions more.

3. Follow up with more strikes

I think the judges may have called things in Machida’s favor largely due to how many striking exchanges looked – two fighters bouncing off one another, Shogun with a leg kick, Machida with a punch to the head or body. It’s not hard to blame the judges for giving the exchange to Machida when the kick isn’t followed up with more strikes. I know patience is necessary, but if Shogun’s leg kicks are effective, they should be putting Machida off balance for long enough that he would at least be forced to stay defensive for long enough for a follow-up punch or two.

4. Stalk, don’t follow

A lot of people say that Shogun was stalking Machida the entire fight, but I don’t think they really know what that entails. Moving forward doesn’t mean you are stalking. Shogun seemed far less concerned with controlling Machida’s position than many people think. He was definitely the more aggressive fighter, but Shogun needs to control where his opponent moves if he wants the judges to favor him in his control of the Octagon.

Shogun did an excellent job, and definitely exposed Machida’s weaknesses. I’m really looking forward to the rematch, but that’ll be months away. In the meantime, Strikeforce is going to keep us all busy next week, and UFC 105 will entertain in the week after that. Michael Bisping returns at UFC 105 to face Denis Kang, and while a know plenty are screaming “EH’S GONNA GET KTFOd AGAIN, ****!!!!11!!one!!”, I look forward Bisping’s return regardless.

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