There is still a while to go until UFC 100 on 11 July, but there have been odds up for this event for quite some time. Many are billing it as the biggest event in UFC history, though UFC president Dana White seems to be oddly calm. Regardless, it’s going to feature two title fights, for the heavyweight and welterweight divisions, the coaches from The Ultimate Fighter Season 9 will be fighting one another, and the rest of the card looks to be packed full of exciting fights.

To start with, the heavyweight fight between interim champion Frank Mir and champion Brock Lesnar has seen a fair bit of discussion. Obviously fans of the division have been waiting quite some time to see this match-up settled. At sportsbooks, Lesnar is the favorite, with BetUS giving him -240 and Bodog giving him -250. Frank Mir has been given +190 odds at both of these sportsbooks.

I really am puzzled as to why Lesnar is being favored in this fight. Is it his win over Randy Couture? Did that suddenly make him undoubtedly the top of the heavyweight division? Okay, yes, it gave him the title, but was Lesnar really the top contender? No offence to Randy or to Lesnar’s victory, but Couture was 45 at the time and hadn’t fought in over a year. Let’s not get too excited about Lesnar’s abilities just yet.

Also, Mir has already defeated Lesnar before – Lesnar’s only loss in an incredibly short MMA career. Sure, Lesnar may have been set to win until he got caught in Mir’s kneebar… but he got caught in a kneebar! He’s a wrestler, so I’m not at all surprised that he can control where a fight goes, but submissions are their own area, and Lesnar hasn’t exactly had to improve his submissions defence for his last two fights. I think a bet on Frank Mir makes a lot more sense than a bet on Brock Lesnar, as the odds for Lesnar look way too short for how close this fight really is.

The welterweight fight between Georges St. Pierre and Thiago Alves has GSP as the favorite, and with good cause. BetUS places GSP at -300 and Alves at +220, while Bodog takes it even further, with GSP at -340 and Alves at +260. I wouldn’t argue with these odds, I’d just avoid betting on this fight. I see no reason GSP won’t win convincingly, and there are better bets to make for this event. Remember, betting on outcomes that are almost a sure thing generally just means a pitiful payout if the expected result comes in, or else a staggering loss in the case of an upset.

Okay, maybe that was a little harsh. Thiago Alves has victories over many notable opponents, including Matt Hughes and Karo Parisyan. He is well-versed in Muay Thai and BJJ, and he’s young at 25, with a lot of fight experience for that age. Nevertheless, GSP has been mind-bogglingly dominant of his division, with both of his losses having been avenged. I don’t think it’s unfair to expect a GSP victory.

I’ll finish up for now with the Mike Bisping vs. Dan Henderson fight. I want Bisping to win, I like Bisping, and I think he has the ability to win. Thus, while I’m going to say that Mike Bisping is going to win, you may not want to place a bet based on that due to my incredible bias. There are reasons I think he’ll win, but let’s look at the odds.

BetUS and Bodog both have Henderson as the favorite. BetUS puts the fight as -230 for Henderson and +180 for Bisping. Bodog has it -250 for Henderson and +190 for Bisping. I’m not so blind as to think that Dan Henderson isn’t a formidable fighter. Former PRIDE welterweight champion and middleweight champion, he’s fought some incredible competition in his time. Unfortunately, he hasn’t really won against the top competition in the UFC.

It’s this lack of wins in his toughest UFC fights that makes me much more confident in Bisping’s chances to win this fight. While reports of Bisping possibly looking to engage in a wrestling contest with an excellent wrestler are troubling, I imagine this is an attempt to further round out his skills rather than a drastic change in tactics for him. I also believe that if Bisping stays on his feet or drives the action with takedowns, Henderson will lose on points. Unless Bisping gets caught with Henderson’s scary right hand, I think the fight will end in a submission for Bisping or a split decision.

There’ll be more here on UFC 100 when it gets closer, but that’s all for now.